[en] The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from -20% to more than -50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.
Disciplines :
Environmental sciences & ecology
Author, co-author :
Martinez Del Castillo, Edurne ; Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany. Emdc85@gmail.com
Zang, Christian S ; Department of Forestry, University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, Triesdorf, Germany
Buras, Allan; Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University Munich, Freising, Germany
Hacket-Pain, Andrew ; Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Esper, Jan; Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany ; Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe), Brno, Czech Republic
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Department of Geography, Autonomous University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Hartl, Claudia ; Nature Rings - Environmental Research and Education, Mainz, Germany
Weigel, Robert; Plant Ecology, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
Klesse, Stefan; Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape WSL, Birmendorf, Switzerland
Resco de Dios, Victor ; School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China ; Department of Crop and Forest Sciences and Joint Research Unit CTFC-AGROTECNIO CERCA Center, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain
Scharnweber, Tobias ; Institute for Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
Dorado-Liñán, Isabel ; Systems and Natural Resources Department, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke ; Chair of Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production, TU Dresden, Tharandt, Germany
van der Maaten, Ernst ; Chair of Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production, TU Dresden, Tharandt, Germany
Jump, Alistair; Biological and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland
Mikac, Sjepan ; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Banzragch, Bat-Enerel; Plant Ecology, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
Beck, Wolfgang; Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Thünen Institute, Eberswalde, Germany
Cavin, Liam; Biological and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland
Claessens, Hugues ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Gestion des ressources forestières et des milieux naturels
Čada, Vojtěch ; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Čufar, Katarina ; Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Wood Science and Technology, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Applied Vegetation Ecology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
Gričar, Jozica; Slovenian Forestry Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Gil-Pelegrín, Eustaquio; Forest Resources Department, Centro de Investigación y Tecnología Agroalimentaria de Aragón (CITA), Zaragoza, Spain
Janda, Pavel; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Kazimirovic, Marko ; University of Belgrade - Faculty of Forestry, Belgrade, Serbia
Kreyling, Juergen ; Institute for Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
Latte, Nicolas ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Gestion des ressources forestières et des milieux naturels
Leuschner, Christoph; Plant Ecology, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
Longares, Luis Alberto; Department of Geography and Regional Planning, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
Menzel, Annette; TUM School of Life Sciences/Ecoclimatology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Merela, Maks ; Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Wood Science and Technology, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Motta, Renzo; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Food Sciences, University of Turin, Grugliasco, Italy
Muffler, Lena; Plant Ecology, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany ; Institute for Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
Nola, Paola ; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
Petritan, Any Mary; National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry "Marin Dracea", Voluntari, Romania
Petritan, Ion Catalin; Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering, University of Brasov, Brașov, Romania
Prislan, Peter ; Slovenian Forestry Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Rubio-Cuadrado, Álvaro ; Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Rydval, Miloš ; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Stajić, Branko ; University of Belgrade - Faculty of Forestry, Belgrade, Serbia
Svoboda, Miroslav; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Toromani, Elvin; Faculty of Forestry Sciences, Agricultural University of Tirana, Koder-Kamez, Albania
Trotsiuk, Volodymyr ; Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape WSL, Birmendorf, Switzerland
Wilmking, Martin ; Institute for Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
Zlatanov, Tzvetan ; Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
de Luis, Martin ; Department of Geography and Regional Planning, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
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