[en] Model simulations at the seasonal time scale are often lacking in any real assessment of the associated error bounds. We use here the results of nine three-dimensional hydrodynamic models covering (at least) the Southern and Central North Sea to investigate the range of model variability and model errors. The models are run as they are, i.e. with their usual grid, model domain, equation formulation and numerical details, but in a consistent framework-bathymetry, boundary and initial conditions, meteorological forcing functions interpolated from a common data set-. While the responses of the models are clearly qualitatively similar, large quantitative differences do occur. These differences are often of the same order of magnitude as both the ensemble mean and the sensitivity of the individual results to critical parameters. The direct comparison of the results with measurements from the North Sea Project provides a quantification of the model errors for the salinity and temperature distributions. Using the cost function approach, it is shown that the mean errors (for all the models and all seasons) reach about 70% of the natural variability for the temperature and 90% for the salinity. These errors are larger in summer, when a stratification develops over the Central and Northern North Sea, than in winter. No single model parameter (spatial resolution, turbulence closure scheme, model domain, etc.) can explain the different behaviours of the models. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
scite shows how a scientific paper has been cited by providing the context of the citation, a classification describing whether it supports, mentions, or contrasts the cited claim, and a label indicating in which section the citation was made.
Bibliography
Bailly du Bois P., Salomon J.C., Gandon R., Guegueniat P. A quantitative estimate of English Channel water fluxes into the North Sea from 1987 to 1992 based on radiotracer distribution. Journal of Marine Systems. 6:1995;457-481.
Berntsen J., Svendsen E. Using the SKAGEX dataset for evaluation of ocean model skills. Journal of Marine Systems. 8(4):1999;313-331.
de Goede, E.D., Roozekrans, J.N., de Kok, J.M., Vos, R.J., Uittenbogaard, R.E., 2000. REST3D, REmote Sensing sea surface Temperature for 3D North Sea modelling. BCRS report NRSP-2 00-16, Delft.
de Vries H., Breton M., de Mulder T., Krestenitis Y., Ozer J., Proctor R., Ruddick K.G., Salomon J.-C., Voorips A. A comparison of 2D storm surge models applied to three shallow European Seas. Environmental Software. 10(1):1995;23-42.
Delhez E.J.M. Reconnaissance of the general circulation of the North-Western European Continental Shelf by means of a three-dimensional turbulent closure model. Earth-Science Reviews. 41:1996;3-29.
Delhez E.J.M., Martin G.P. Preliminary results of 3D baroclinic numerical models of the mesoscale and macroscale circulations on the North-Western European Continental Shelf. Journal of Marine Systems. 3:1992;423-440.
DHI, 1997. DYNOCS, Technical report, Regional Model, Commission of the European Communities (DGXII).
Dooley H.D. Hypothesis concerning the circulation of the northern North Sea. Journal du Conseil - Conseil International pour l'exploration de la mer. 36:1974;54-61.
Engedahl H., Ådlandsvik B., Martinsen E.A. Production of monthly climatological archives for the Nordic Seas. Journal of Marine System. 14:1998;1-26.
Gerritsen H.G., Vos R.J., van der Kaaij Th., Lane A., Boon J.G. Suspended sediment modelling in a shelf sea (North Sea). Coastal Engineering. 41:2000;317-352.
Hair J.F., Anderson R.E., Tatham R.L., Black W.C. Multivariate Data Analysis. 5th ed. 1998;Prentice Hall, London. 730 pp.
Holt J.T., James I.D. A simulation of the Southern North Sea in comparison with measurements from the North Sea Project: Part 1. Temperature. Continental Shelf Research. 19(8):1999;1087-1112.
Jones J.E. Coastal and shelf-sea modelling in the European context. Gibson R.N., Barnes M., Atkinson R.J.A. Oceanography and Marine Biology - An Annual Review. vol. 40:2002;37-41 UCL Press, University College, London. 704 pp.
Lander, J.W.M., Blokland, P.A., De Kok, J.M., 1996. The three-dimensional shallow water model triwaq with a flexible vertical grid definition, Rijkswaterstaat, National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management/rikz, rikz-96.104X.
Lazure P., Jegou A.-M. 3D modelling of seasonal evolution of Loire and Gironde plumes on Biscay Bay continental shelf. Oceanologica Acta. 21(2):1998;165-177.
Luyten, P.J., Jones, J.E., Proctor, E., Tabor, A., Tett, P., Wild-Allen, K., 1999. COHERENS - A coupled Hydrodynamical-Ecological Model for Regional and Shelf Seas: User Documentation. MUMM Report, Management Unit of the Mathematical Models of the North Sea, 911 pp.
Martinsen, E.A., Engedahl, H., Ottersen, G., Ådlandsvik, B., Loeng, H., Balino, B. 1992. MetOcean MOdeling Project, Climatological and hydrographical data for hindcast of ocean currents. Technical report 100. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway. 93 pp.
NERC, 1992. North Sea Project Data Set (1988-1991), British Oceanographic Data Centre, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory.
OSPAR, 1998. Report of the ASMO modelling Workshop on Eutrophication Issues 5-8 November 1996, The Hague, The Netherlands. Assessment and Monitoring group of the OSPAR Commission. 65 pp+ 5 App.
Pohlmann T. Predicting the thermocline in a circulation model of the North Sea: Part I. Model description, calibration and verification. Continental Shelf Research. 16(2):1996;131-146.
Prandle D. Combining modelling and monitoring to determine fluxes of water, dissolved and particulate metals through the Dover Strait. Continental Shelf Research. 16(2):1996;237-257.
Proctor R. North Sea advection dispersion study: 2. Assessments of model variability. Eurocean2000, The European Conference on Marine Science and Ocean Technology, Hamburg, 29 August-2 September 2000. Marine Processes, Ecosystems and Interactions. vol. 1:2000;16-22.
Proctor R., James I.D. A fine-resolution three-dimensional model of the southern North Sea. Journal of Marine Systems. 8:1996;285-295.
Rasmussen E.B., Vested H.J., Justesen P., Ekebjærg L.C. SYSTEM3: A Three Dimensional Hydrodynamical Model. DHI Report. 1990;Danish Hydraulic Institute Report. 150 pp.
Salomon J.C., Breton M., Guegueniat P. Computed residual flow through the Dover Strait. Oceanologica Acta. 16(5-6):1993;449-455.
Skogen, M.D., Søiland, H., 1998. A User's guide to NORWECOM v2.0. The NORWegian ECOlogical Model system. Technical report: Fisken og Havet 18/98. Institute of Marine Research, Pb.1870, N-5024 Bergen, 42 pp.
Søiland H., Skogen M. Validation of a three-dimensional biophysical model using nutrient observations in the North Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Sciences. 57:2000;816-823.
Turrel W.R., Henderson E.W., Slesser G., Payne R., Adams R.D. Seasonal changes in the circulation of the northern North Sea. Continental Shelf Research. 12(2-3):1992;257-286.
WL | Delft Hydraulics, 2000. Delft3D-FLOW, A simulation program for hydrodynamic flows and transports in 2 and 3 dimensions. User Guide.
This website uses cookies to improve user experience. Read more
Save & Close
Accept all
Decline all
Show detailsHide details
Cookie declaration
About cookies
Strictly necessary
Performance
Strictly necessary cookies allow core website functionality such as user login and account management. The website cannot be used properly without strictly necessary cookies.
This cookie is used by Cookie-Script.com service to remember visitor cookie consent preferences. It is necessary for Cookie-Script.com cookie banner to work properly.
Performance cookies are used to see how visitors use the website, eg. analytics cookies. Those cookies cannot be used to directly identify a certain visitor.
Used to store the attribution information, the referrer initially used to visit the website
Cookies are small text files that are placed on your computer by websites that you visit. Websites use cookies to help users navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. Cookies that are required for the website to operate properly are allowed to be set without your permission. All other cookies need to be approved before they can be set in the browser.
You can change your consent to cookie usage at any time on our Privacy Policy page.