Evaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, Romania

Kumar, Vipin; Cauchie, Léna; Mreyen, Anne-Sophie; Micu, Mihai; Havenith, Hans-Balder

doi:10.5194/nhess-21-3767-2021

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Evaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, Romania

Kumar, Vipin; Cauchie, Léna; Mreyen, Anne-Sophie et al.

2021 • In Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21, p. 3767–3788

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10.5194/nhess-21-3767-2021

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Keywords :

Landslides; seismic; modelling

Abstract :

[en] There have been many studies exploring rainfall-induced slope failures in earthquake-affected terrain. However, studies evaluating the potential effects of both landslide-triggering factors – rainfall and earthquakes – have been infrequent despite rising global landslide mortality risk. The SE Carpathians, which have been subjected to many large historical earthquakes and changing climate thus resulting in frequent landslides, comprise one such region that has been little explored in this context. Therefore, a massive (9.1Mm2) landslide, situated along the river Bâsca Rozilei, in the Vrancea seismic zone, SE Carpathians, is chosen as a case study area to achieve the aforesaid objective (evaluating the effects of both rainfall and earthquakes on landslides) using slope stability evaluation and runout simulation. The present state of the slope reveals a factor of safety in a range of 1.17–1.32 with a static condition displacement of 0.4–4m that reaches up to 8–60m under dynamic (earthquake) conditions. The groundwater (GW) effect further decreases the factor of safety and increases the displacement. Ground motion amplification enhances the possibility of slope surface deformation and displacements. The debris flow prediction, implying the excessive rainfall effect, reveals a flow having a 9.0–26.0m height and 2.1–3.0ms1 velocity along the river channel. The predicted extent of potential debris flow is found to follow the trails possibly created by previous debris flow and/or slide events.

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Kumar, Vipin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géologie > Géologie de l'environnement

Cauchie, Léna

Mreyen, Anne-Sophie ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > Géophysique appliquée

Micu, Mihai

Havenith, Hans-Balder ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géologie > Géologie de l'environnement

Language :

English

Title :

Evaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, Romania

Publication date :

16 December 2021

Journal title :

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

ISSN :

1561-8633

eISSN :

1684-9981

Publisher :

Copemicus Gesellschaften, Germany

Special issue title :

Earthquake-induced hazards: ground motion amplification and ground failures

Volume :

Pages :

3767–3788

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Name of the research project :

FNRS Belgium in the frame of the Belgian–Swiss collaboration project “4D seismic response and slope failure”.

Available on ORBi :

since 16 January 2022

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