Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Future Heating Demand in Different Types of Buildings in the Belgian Residential Building Stock

Elnagar, Essam; Doutreloup, Sébastien; Lemort, Vincent

doi:10.26868/25222708.2021.30851

Paper published in a book (Scientific congresses and symposiums)

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Future Heating Demand in Different Types of Buildings in the Belgian Residential Building Stock

Elnagar, Essam; Doutreloup, Sébastien; Lemort, Vincent

2021 • In Helsen, Lieve (Ed.) Proceeding of the International Building Simulation Conference

Peer reviewed

Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/2268/263135

DOI
10.26868/25222708.2021.30851

Files (1)Send to Details Statistics Bibliography Similar publications

Files

Full Text

30851_Elnagar_Essam.pdf

Publisher postprint (846.38 kB)

Download

All documents in ORBi are protected by a user license.

Send to

RIS BibTex APA Chicago Permalink X Linkedin

Details

Keywords :

Climate Change; Global Warming; Energy Demand; Heating Demand

Abstract :

[en] In coming years, global warming will have a large impact on many aspects of the environment and human activities in buildings. The objective of the ongoing study, of which some results are presented in this paper, is to upscale the impact of climate change on the Belgian residential building stock and to evaluate its influence on the future heating and cooling demands. In order to quantify the impact of climate change, this study used MAR regional atmospheric model using MPI and BCC as forcing GCMs for Liege city during the period of 2012-2100. Energy simulations are obtained using MATLAB for four different types of residential buildings (Freestanding, semi-detached, terraced and apartment) in four different representative years (2012, 2021, 2050 and 2100). The present paper focuses on results associated with predicted future heating demands.

Research Center/Unit :

Thermal Energy Systems

Disciplines :

Energy

Author, co-author :

Elnagar, Essam ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Systèmes énergétiques

Doutreloup, Sébastien ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Lemort, Vincent ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Systèmes énergétiques

Language :

English

Title :

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Future Heating Demand in Different Types of Buildings in the Belgian Residential Building Stock

Publication date :

01 September 2021

Event name :

Building Simulation 2021 Conference

Event organizer :

International Building Performance Simulation Association

Event place :

Bruges, Belgium

Event date :

1-3 September 2021

By request :

Yes

Audience :

International

Main work title :

Proceeding of the International Building Simulation Conference

Author, co-author :

Helsen, Lieve

Publisher :

KU Leuven

Peer reviewed :

Peer reviewed

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Name of the research project :

[OCCuPANt] Impacts of climate change on buildings in Belgium during summer

Funders :

ULiège - Université de Liège

Available on ORBi :

since 08 September 2021

Statistics

Number of views

318 (46 by ULiège)

Number of downloads

176 (15 by ULiège)

More statistics

Scopus citations^®

Scopus citations^®
without self-citations

OpenCitations

OpenAlex citations

Bibliography

Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., & Fettweis, X. (2019). Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979-2015) and identification of dominant processes. The Cryosphere, 13(1), 281-296. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019
Ballarini, I., Costantino, A., Fabrizio, E., & Corrado, V. (2019). The Dynamic Model of EN ISO 52016-1 for the Energy Assessment of Buildings Compared to Simplified and Detailed Simulation Methods.3854.https://doi.org/10.26868/25222708.2019.210431
Doutreloup, S., Wyard, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Erpicum, M., & Fettweis, X. (2019). Sensitivity to Convective Schemes on Precipitation Simulated by the Regional Climate Model MAR over Belgium (1987-2017). Atmosphere, 10(1), 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010034
European Commission. Joint Research Centre. (2018). Assessment of the impact of climate scenarios on residential energy demand for heating and cooling. Publications Office. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/96778
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., & Gallée, H. (2013). Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR. The Cryosphere, 7(2), 469-489. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013
Gendebien, S., Georges, E., Bertagnolio, S., & Lemort, V. (2015). Methodology to characterize a residential building stock using a bottom-up approach: A case study applied to Belgium. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 71-88 Pages. https://doi.org/10.5278/IJSEPM.2014.4.7
Gutjahr, O., Putrasahan, D., Lohmann, K., Jungclaus, J. H., von Storch, J.-S., Brüggemann, N., Haak, H., & Stössel, A. (2019). Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Geoscientific Model Development, 12(7), 3241-3281. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019
International Standard Organization. (2007). Energy performance of buildings. Calculation of energy use for space heating and cooling: BSI British Standards. https://doi.org/10.3403/30133624
Isaac, M., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2009). Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. Energy Policy, 37(2), 507-521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051
Kints, C. (2008). “La rénovation énergétique et durable des logements Wallons, Analyse du bâti existant et mise en évidence de typologies de logements prioritaires. Architecture & Climat. http://www.lehr.be/Reports/UCL_Les_logemen ts_wallons.pdf
Kittel, C. (2021). Present and future sensitivity of the Antarctic surface mass balance to oceanic and atmospheric forcings: Insights with the regional climate model MAR [Doctoral Thesis, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgique]. https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/258491
Kittel, C., Amory, C., Agosta, C., Delhasse, A., Doutreloup, S., Huot, P.-V., Wyard, C., Fichefet, T., & Fettweis, X. (2018). Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR. The Cryosphere, 12(12), 3827-3839. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., & Sanderson, B. M. (2016). The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3461-3482. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
Ridder, K. D., & Gallée, H. (1998). Land Surface-Induced Regional Climate Change in Southern Israel. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 37(11), 1470-1485. https://doi.org/10.1175/15200450(1998)037<1470:LSIRCC>2.0.CO;2
SYNERGRID, Synthetic Load Profiles. (2020). http://www.synergrid.be/
Vanneste, D., Thomas, I., & Goossens, L. (2007). Enquête socio-économique 2001-Monographie «Le logement en Belgique». SPF Economie, Direction generale Statistique et Information Economique (DGSIE), Politique scientifique fédérale.
Ward, I. C. (2008). Will global warming reduce the carbon emissions of the Yorkshire Humber Region's domestic building stock-A scoping study. Energy and Buildings, 40(6), 998-1003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2007.08.007
Wu, T., Yu, R., Lu, Y., Jie, W., Fang, Y., Zhang, J., Zhang, L., Xin, X., Li, L., Wang, Z., Liu, Y., Zhang, F., Wu, F., Chu, M., Li, J., Li, W., Zhang, Y., Shi, X., Zhou, W., … Shu, Q. (2020). BCCCSM2-HR: A High-Resolution Version of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model [Preprint]. Climate and Earth system modeling. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-284
Wyard, C., Scholzen, C., Doutreloup, S., Hallot, É., & Fettweis, X. (2021). Future evolution of the hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods in the south‐east of Belgium by 2100 using a regional climate model. International Journal of Climatology, 41(1), 647-662. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6642