Klimaverträgliche Energieversorgung für Deutschland - 16 Orientierungspunkte

As Germany's equitable contribution to meeting the global 1.5-degree limit, 16 points of orientation for a climate-compatible energy supply system are presented. It is assumed that for this to be realized, German energy-related CO2 emissions will have to decline to zero within about 15 years. Energy conservation reduces the need for an expansion of renewable power generation capacities. The transport sector, redesigned industrial processes and building retrofits can significantly contribute to this. Nuclear energy is fraught with major risks. Besides, it cannot be scaled up suf-ficiently quickly. Using biomass as energy crops is inefficient and in conflict with other types of land use. Importing large amounts of carbon-neutral energy requires huge investments abroad. It is an unreliable option for the future.
Therefore, the rapid expansion of photovoltaics (PV) and wind power in Germany is crucial. It is estimated that the electricity demand in 2030 can almost completely be met by renewables, if the capacities are expanded to about 350 GW of PV and about 150 GW of wind power. This expansion would enable supplying largely electrified mobility and heating systems as well as providing part of the required “green” hydro-gen in Germany. An average annual increase of around 30 GW of PV and around 9 GW of wind power will be required. This is about six times (PV) or three times (wind) as much as previously planned and will necessitate a significant societal effort. Delaying this expansion further would have to be compensated by even greater ef-forts in terms of drastic energy savings or imports of renewable energy. Overall, a delayed expansion of renewables would entail more difficulties than an ambitious expansion. Since it takes years to build capacity, it is possible to recalibrate efforts, for example, when it becomes apparent that a sufficiently large global import market is developing. Until then, out of responsibility for the future and in the spirit of the Paris Agreement, it is advisable to pursue the expansion targets outlined here.
Green hydrogen (i.e. hydrogen produced from renewable energies) and derived syn-thesis products are necessary for the decarbonization of industrial processes, air transport and shipping as well as for securing energy supply for periods when solar and wind power generation is very low. However, without drastically raising the above-mentioned expansion targets for wind and solar even higher, these products will not be available in sufficient quantities for road transport and heat supply. Tech-niques to balance electricity supply and demand are available and should be speedily developed and expanded. These include electricity exchange with neighboring coun-tries, demand management and energy storage. It is advisable to quickly create im-proved legal frameworks, to integrate these technologies, and to expand electricity grids.
In the medium to long term, the costs of a climate-compatible energy system are no higher than currently. At the same time, employment and export opportunities are generated in Germany through the development, operation and maintenance of a renewable-based energy system and the energy-efficient retrofitting of buildings. The political framework will determine whether Germany's climate-compatible en-ergy supply system succeeds.