Surface melt and runoff on Antarctic ice shelves at 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C of future warming

Gilbert, Ella; Kittel, Christoph

doi:10.1029/2020GL091733

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Surface melt and runoff on Antarctic ice shelves at 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C of future warming

Gilbert, Ella; Kittel, Christoph

2021 • In Geophysical Research Letters

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/258735

DOI
10.1029/2020GL091733

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Keywords :

surface mass balance; surface melting; runoff; ice shelves; Antarctica

Abstract :

[en] The future surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctic ice shelves has not been constrained with models of sufficient resolution and complexity. Here, we force the high‐resolution Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) with future simulations from four CMIP models to evaluate the likely effects on the SMB of warming of 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C above pre‐industrial temperatures. We find non‐linear growth in melt and runoff which causes SMB to become less positive with more pronounced warming. Consequently, Antarctic ice shelves may be more likely to contribute indirectly to sea level rise via hydrofracturing‐induced collapse, which facilitates accelerated glacial discharge. Using runoff and melt as indicators of ice shelf stability, we find that several Antarctic ice shelves (Larsen C, Wilkins, Pine Island and Shackleton) are vulnerable to disintegration at 4°C. Limiting 21st century warming to 2°C will halve the ice shelf area susceptible to hydrofracturing‐induced collapse compared to 4°C.

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Gilbert, Ella

Kittel, Christoph ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Language :

English

Title :

Surface melt and runoff on Antarctic ice shelves at 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C of future warming

Publication date :

2021

Journal title :

Geophysical Research Letters

ISSN :

0094-8276

eISSN :

1944-8007

Publisher :

Wiley, Washington, United States - District of Columbia

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

Tier-1 supercomputer
CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Funders :

F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
CÉCI - Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif [BE]
Tier-1

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