[en] The future surface mass balance (SMB) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the sea level rise. Most of recent Antarctic SMB projections were based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, new CMIP6 results have revealed a +1.3 ∘C higher mean Antarctic near-surface temperature than in CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century, enabling estimations of future SMB in warmer climates. Here, we investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings with an ensemble of four simulations performed with the polar regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) forced by two CMIP5 and two CMIP6 models over 1981–2100. Statistical extrapolation enables us to expand our results to the whole CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Our results highlight a contrasting effect on the future grounded ice sheet and the ice shelves. The SMB over grounded ice is projected to increase as a response to stronger snowfall, only partly offset by enhanced meltwater run-off. This leads to a cumulated sea-level-rise mitigation (i.e. an increase in surface mass) of the grounded Antarctic surface by 5.1 ± 1.9 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) in CMIP5-RCP8.5 (Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and 6.3 ± 2.0 cm SLE in CMIP6-ssp585 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585). Additionally, the CMIP6 low-emission ssp126 and intermediate-emission ssp245 scenarios project a stabilized surface mass gain, resulting in a lower mitigation to sea level rise than in ssp585. Over the ice shelves, the strong run-off increase associated with higher temperature is projected to decrease the SMB (more strongly in CMIP6-ssp585 compared to CMIP5-RCP8.5). Ice shelves are however predicted to have a close-to-present-equilibrium stable SMB under CMIP6 ssp126 and ssp245 scenarios. Future uncertainties are mainly due to the sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the timing of the projected warming. While ice shelves should remain at a close-to-equilibrium stable SMB under the Paris Agreement, MAR projects strong SMB decrease for an Antarctic near-surface warming above +2.5 ∘C compared to 1981–2010 mean temperature, limiting the warming range before potential irreversible damages on the ice shelves. Finally, our results reveal the existence of a potential threshold (+7.5 ∘C) that leads to a lower grounded-SMB increase. This however has to be confirmed in following studies using more extreme or longer future scenarios.
Research center :
Sphères - SPHERES
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Kittel, Christoph ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
H2020 - 869304 - PROTECT - PROjecTing sEa-level rise : from iCe sheets to local implicaTions
Funders :
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE] CÉCI - Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif [BE] UE - Union Européenne [BE] CE - Commission Européenne [BE]
Agosta, C., Favier, V., Krinner, G., Galleé, H., Fettweis, X., Genthon, C.: High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the twentieth, twenty first and twenty second centuries, Clim. Dyn., 41, 3247-3260, 2013.
Agosta, C., Fettweis, X., Datta, R.: Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, The Cryosphere, 9, 2311-2321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, 2015.
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Galleé, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., vanWessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979-2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019.
Agosta, C., Kittel, C., Amory, C.: Evaluation of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models for regional modelling of Greenland and Antarctic surface mass balance, in preparation, 2021.
Amory, C.: Drifting-snow statistics from multiple-year autonomous measurements in Adélie Land, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 1713-1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1713-2020, 2020.
Amory, C., Kittel, C.: Brief communication: Rare ambient saturation during drifting snow occurrences at a coastal location of East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 13, 3405-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3405-2019, 2019.
Amory, C., Trouvilliez, A., Galleé, H., Favier, V., Naaim-Bouvet, F., Genthon, C., Agosta, C., Piard, L., Bellot, H.: Comparison between observed and simulated aeolian snow mass fluxes in Adélie Land, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 9, 1373-1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1373-2015, 2015.
Amory, C., Kittel, C., Le Toumelin, L., Agosta, C., Delhasse, A., Favier, V., Fettweis, X.: Performance of MAR (v3.11) in simulating the drifting-snow climate and surface mass balance of Adelie Land, East Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-368, in review, 2020.
Arthur, J. F., Stokes, C., Jamieson, S. S., Carr, J. R., Leeson, A. A.: Recent understanding of Antarctic supraglacial lakes using satellite remote sensing, Prog. Phys. Geog., 6, 837-869, 2020.
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855-879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020.
Bell, R. E., Chu, W., Kingslake, J., Das, I., Tedesco, M., Tinto, K. J., Zappa, C. J., Frezzotti, M., Boghosian, A., Lee, W. S.: Antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river, Nature, 544, 344-348, 2017.
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, ∅., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I. A., Hoose, C., Kristjánsson, J. E.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687-720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013.
Bi, D., Dix, M., Marsland, S. J., O'Farrell, S., Rashid, H., Uotila, P., Hirst, A. C., Kowalczyk, E., Golebiewski, M., Sullivan, A., Yan, Hailin and Hannah, N., Franklin, C., Sun, Z., Vohralik, P.,Watterson, I., Zhou, X., Fiedler, R., Collier, M., Noonan, J., Stevens, L., Uhe, P., Zhu, H., Griffies, S. M., Hill, R., Harris, C., Puri, K.: The ACCESS coupled model: Description, control climate and evaluation, Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J, 63, 41-64, 2013.
Brun, E., David, P., Subul, M., Brunot, G.: A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forescating, J. Glaciol., 38, 13-22, 1992.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D., Du-Vivier, A., Edwards, J., Emmons, L., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Liscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Philips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E, Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, J., Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
Delhasse, A., Kittel, C., Amory, C., Hofer, S., van As, D., S. Fausto, R., Fettweis, X.: Brief communication: Evaluation of the near-surface climate in ERA5 over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 957-965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, 2020.
Dell, R., Arnold, N., Willis, I., Banwell, A., Williamson, A., Pritchard, H., Orr, A.: Lateral meltwater transfer across an Antarctic ice shelf, The Cryosphere, 14, 2313-2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2313-2020, 2020.
De Ridder, K., Galleé, H.: Land surface-induce regional climate change in Southern Israel, J. Appl. Meteorol., 37, 1470-1485, 1998.
De Ridder, K., Schayes, G.: The IAGL Land Surface Model, J. Appl. Meteorol., 36, 167-182, https://doi.org/10.1086/451461, 1997.
Dix, M., Vohralik, P., Bi, D., Rashid, H., Marsland, S., O'Farrell, S., Uotila, P., Hirst, T., Kowalczyk, E., Sullivan, A., Hailin, Y., Franklin, C., Sun, Z., Watterson, I., Collier, M., Noonan, J., Rotstayn, L., Steven, L., Uhe, P., Puri, K.: The ACCESS coupled model: Documentation of core CMIP5 simulations and initial results, Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J, 63, 83-99, 2013.
Donat-Magnin, M., Jourdain, N. C., Kittel, C., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Galleé, H., Krinner, G., Chekki, M.: Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 15, 571-593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021.
Dupont, T., Alley, R. B.: Assessment of the importance of ice-shelf buttressing to ice-sheet flow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022024, 2005.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Galleé, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469-489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013.
Fettweis, X., Box, J. E., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Lang, C., van As, D., Machguth, H., Galleé, H.: Reconstructions of the 1900-2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model, The Cryosphere, 11, 1015-1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017.
Fettweis, X., Hofer, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Amory, C., Aoki, T., Berends, C. J., Born, A., Box, J. E., Delhasse, A., Fujita, K., Gierz, P., Goelzer, H., Hanna, E., Hashimoto, A., Huybrechts, P., Kapsch, M.-L., King, M. D., Kittel, C., Lang, C., Langen, P. L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Liston, G. E., Lohmann, G., Mernild, S. H., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Mottram, R. H., Niwano, M., Noël, B., Ryan, J. C., Smith, A., Streffing, J., Tedesco, M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M., van de Wal, R. S. W., van Kampenhout, L., Wilton, D., Wouters, B., Ziemen, F., Zolles, T.: GrSMBMIP: Intercomparison of the modelled 1980-2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 3935-3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020.
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: Improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375-393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013.
Frieler, K., Clark, P. U., He, F., Buizert, C., Reese, R., Ligtenberg, S. R., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A.: Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 348-352, 2015.
Fürst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Rankl, M., Braun, M., Gagliardini, O.: The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 479-482, 2016.
Fyke, J., Lenaerts, J. T. M.,Wang, H.: Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability, The Cryosphere, 11, 2595-2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, 2017.
Fyke, J., Sergienko, O., Löfverström, M., Price, S., Lenaerts, J. T.: An overview of interactions and feedbacks between ice sheets and the Earth system, Rev. Geophys., 56, 361-408, 2018.
Galleé, H.: Simulation of the Mesocyclonic Activity in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 2051-2069, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)1232051:SOTMAI2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Galleé, H., Duynkerke, P. G.: Air-snow interactions and the surface energy and mass balance over the melting zone of west Greenland during the Greenland Ice Margin Experiment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 13813-13824, 1997.
Galleé, H., Schayes, G.: Development of a Three-Dimensional Meso-Primitive Equation Model: Katabatic Winds Simulation in the Area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 671-685, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)1220671:DOATDM2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Galleé, H., Guyomarc'h, G., Brun, E.: Impact of snow drift on the antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance: Possible sensitivity to snow-surface properties, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 99, 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018776422809, 2001.
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Donges, J. F.,Winkelmann, R.: The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature, 585, 538-544, 2020.
Gardner, A. S., Moholdt, G., Scambos, T., Fahnstock, M., Ligtenberg, S., van den Broeke, M., Nilsson, J.: Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years, The Cryosphere, 12, 521-547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018.
Golledge, N. R., Kowalewski, D. E., Naish, T. R., Levy, R. H., Fogwill, C. J., Gasson, E. G.: The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise, Nature, 526, 421-425, 2015.
Gorte, T., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Medley, B.: Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections, The Cryosphere, 14, 4719-4733, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, 2020. Gudmundsson, G. H.: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets, The Cryosphere, 7, 647-655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-647-2013, 2013.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Munõz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999-2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hofer, S., Tedstone, A. J., Fettweis, X., Bamber, J. L.: Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet, Sci. Adv., 3, e1700584, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700584, 2017.
Hofer, S., Lang, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Delhasse, A., Tedstone, A., Fettweis, X.: Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6, Nat. Commun., 11, 1-11, 2020.
Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., Steig, E. J.:West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 12, 718-724, 2019.
Hosking, J. S., Orr, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Turner, J.: Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 367-376, 2016.
Iversen, T., Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, ∅., Drange, H., Kristjansson, J. E., Medhaug, I., Sand, M., Seierstad, I. A.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 389-415, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013, 2013.
Kingslake, J., Ely, J. C., Das, I., Bell, R. E.: Widespread movement of meltwater onto and across Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 544, 349-352, 2017.
Kittel, C.: Kittel et al. (2021), The Cryosphere: MAR and ESMs data [Data set], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4459259, 2021.
Kittel, C., Amory, C., Agosta, C., Delhasse, A., Doutreloup, S., Huot, P.-V., Wyard, C., Fichefet, T., Fettweis, X.: Sensi tivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR, The Cryosphere, 12, 3827-3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018, 2018.
Krinner, G., Flanner, M. G.: Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 9462-9466, 2018.
Krinner, G., Magand, O., Simmonds, I., Genthon, C., Dufresne, J.-L.: Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Clim. Dyn., 28, 215-230, 2007.
Kuipers Munneke, P., Picard, G., Van den Broeke, M., Lenaerts, J., Van Meijgaard, E.: Insignificant change in Antarctic snowmelt volume since 1979, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050207, 2012.
Kuipers Munneke, P., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Vaughan, D. G.: Firn air depletion as a precursor of Antarctic ice-shelf collapse, J. Glaciol., 60, 205-214, 2014.
Le clec'h, S., Charbit, S., Quiquet, A., Fettweis, X., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., Wyard, C., Ritz, C.: Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 13, 373-395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019.
Le Toumelin, L., Amory, C., Favier, V., Kittel, C., Hofer, S., Fettweis, X., Galleé, H., Kayetha, V.: Sensitivity of the surface energy budget to drifting snow as simulated by MAR in coastal Adelie Land, Antarctica, The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-329, in review, 2020.
Lefebre, F., Galleé, H., VanYpersele, J., Greuell, W.: Modeling of snow and ice melt at ETH Camp (West Greenland): A study of surface albedo, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4231, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001160, 2003.
Lenaerts, J., Van den Broeke, M.: Modeling drifting snow in Antarctica with a regional climate model: 2. Results, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016145, 2012.
Lenaerts, J., Lhermitte, S., Drews, R., Ligtenberg, S., Berger, S., Helm, V., Smeets, C., Van Den Broeke, M., Van De Berg, W. J., Van Meijgaard, E., Eijkelboom, M., Eisen, O., Pattyn, F.: Meltwater produced by wind-albedo interaction stored in an East Antarctic ice shelf, Nature Clim. Change, 7, 58-62, 2017a.
Lenaerts, J. T., Vizcaino, M., Fyke, J., Van Kampenhout, L., van den Broeke, M. R.: Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model, Clim. Dyn., 47, 1367-1381, 2016.
Lenaerts, J. T., Van Tricht, K., Lhermitte, S., L'Ecuyer, T. S.: Polar clouds and radiation in satellite observations, reanalyses, and climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3355-3364, 2017b.
Lenaerts, J. T., Medley, B., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B.: Observing and modeling ice sheet surface mass balance, Rev. Geophys., 57, 376-420, 2019.
Lhermitte, S., Sun, S., Shuman, C., Wouters, B., Pattyn, F., Wuite, J., Berthier, E., Nagler, T.: Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117, 2020.
Ligtenberg, S., Van de Berg, W., Van den Broeke, M., Rae, J., Van Meijgaard, E.: Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model, Clim. Dyn., 41, 867-884, 2013.
Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Kuipers Munneke, P., van den Broeke, M. R.: Present and future variations in Antarctic firn air content, The Cryosphere, 8, 1711-1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, 2014.
MAR model: Http://www.mar.cnrs.fr, last access: 1 March 2021.
MAR Team: MARv3.11, available at: Https://gitlab.com/Mar-Group/MARv3.7, last access: 2 March 2021.
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., et al.: Developments in the MPIM Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1. 2) and its response to increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 998-1038, 2019.
Medley, B., McConnell, J. R., Neumann, T., Reijmer, C., Chellman, N., Sigl, M., Kipfstuhl, S.: Temperature and snowfall in western Queen Maud Land increasing faster than climate model projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1472-1480, 2018.
Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Eyring, V., Flato, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Schlund, M.: Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models, Sci. Adv., 6, eaba1981, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981, 2020.
Morcrette, J.-J.: The Surface Downward Longwave Radiation in the ECMWF Forecast System, J. Climate, 15, 1875-1892, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)0151875:TSDLRI2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, Vikram and Greenbaum, J., Gudmundsson, G., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Young, D.: Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosc., 13, 132-137, 2020.
Mottram, R., Hansen, N., Kittel, C., van Wessem, M., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Boberg, F., van de Berg, W. J., Fettweis, X., Gossart, A., van Lipzig, N. P. M., van Meijgaard, E., Orr, A., Phillips, T., Webster, S., Simonsen, S. B., Souverijns, N.: What is the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica An Intercomparison of Regional Climate Model Estimates, The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-333, in review, 2020.
Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331-2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020.
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521-4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461-3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Palerme, C., Genthon, C., Claud, C., Kay, J. E., Wood, N. B., L'Ecuyer, T.: Evaluation of current and projected Antarctic precipitation in CMIP5 models, Clim. Dyn., 48, 225-239, 2017.
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327-331, 2015.
Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., DeConto, R., Durand, G., Favier, L., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Kuipers Munneke, P., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M.: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 C global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 1053-1061, 2018.
Previdi, M., Polvani, L. M.: Anthropogenic impact on Antarctic surface mass balance, currently masked by natural variability, to emerge by mid-century, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 094001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094001, 2016.
Raphael, M. N., Marshall, G., Turner, J., Fogt, R., Schneider, D., Dixon, D., Hosking, J., Jones, J., Hobbs,W. R.: The Amundsen sea low: Variability, change, and impact on Antarctic climate, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 97, 111-121, 2016.
Rignot, E., Casassa, G., Gogineni, P., Krabill, W., Rivera, A., Thomas, R.: Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020697, 2004.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., van den Broeke, M., van Wessem, M. J., Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979-2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1095-1103, 2019.
Ritz, C., Edwards, T. L., Durand, G., Payne, A. J., Peyaud, V., Hindmarsh, R. C.: Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic icesheet instability constrained by observations, Nature, 528, 115-118, 2015.
Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C., Fahnestock, M., Bohlander, J.: The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula, J. Glaciol., 46, 516-530, 2000.
Scambos, T. A., Bohlander, J., Shuman, C. A., Skvarca, P.: Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020670, 2004.
Scambos, T. A., Berthier, E., Haran, T., Shuman, C. A., Cook, A. J., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Bohlander, J.: Detailed ice loss pattern in the northern Antarctic Peninsula: Widespread decline driven by ice front retreats, The Cryosphere, 8, 2135-2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2135-2014, 2014.
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A., O'Connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S., de Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rumbold, S. T., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson, C. E., Walton, J., Abraham, N. L.,rews, M. B.,rews, T., Archibald, A. T., Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Edwards, J., Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B., Hendry, M. A., Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble, J., Liddicoat, S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson, E., Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G., Zerroukat, M.: UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4513-4558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019.
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033-3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020.
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., van den Broeke, M., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, T., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A., Babonis, G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., Bonin, J., Csatho, B., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Groh, A., Gunter, B., Hanna, E., Harig, C., Helm, V., Horvath, A., Horwath, M., Khan, S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Konrad, H., Langen, P., Lecavalier, B., Loomis, B., Luthcke, S., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S., Mohajerani, Y., Moore, P., Mouginot, J., Moyano, G., Muir, A., Nagler, T., Nield, G., Nilsson, J., Noel, B., Otosaka, I., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Rietbroek, R., Rott, H., Sandberg-Sørensen, L., Sasgen, I., Save, H., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E., Schröder, L., Seo, K.-W., Simonsen, S., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T., Talpe, M., Tarasov, L., van de Berg, W. J., van der Wal, W., van Wessem, M., Vishwakarma, B. D., Wiese, D., Wouters, B., the IMBIE Team: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219-222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, 2012.
Tedesco, M., Doherty, S., Fettweis, X., Alexander, P., Jeyaratnam, J., Stroeve, J.: The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: Trends, drivers, and projections (1981-2100), The Cryosphere, 10, 477-496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, 2016.
Trusel, L. D., Frey, K. E., Das, S. B., Karnauskas, K. B., Munneke, P. K., Van Meijgaard, E., Van Den Broeke, M. R.: Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-firstcentury climate scenarios, Nat, Geosci., 8, 927-932, 2015.
van den Broeke, M.: Strong surface melting preceded collapse of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023247, 2005.
vanWessem, J. M., van de Berg,W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2-Part 2: Antarctica (1979-2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479-1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018.
Vieli, A., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Du, Z.: Causes of precollapse changes of the Larsen B ice shelf: Numerical modelling and assimilation of satellite observations, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 259, 297-306, 2007.
Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat, P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Séférian, R., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Ethé, C., Franchistéguy, L., Geoffroy, O., Lévy, C., Madec, G., Meurdesoif, Y., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., Waldman, R.: Evaluation of CMIP6 deck experiments with CNRM-CM6-1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2177-2213, 2019.
Wille, J. D., Favier, V., Dufour, A., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Turner, J., Agosta, C., Codron, F.:West Antarctic surface melt triggered by atmospheric rivers, Nat. Geosci., 12, 911-916, 2019.
Wyser, K., van Noije, T., Yang, S., von Hardenberg, J., O'Donnell, D., Döscher, R.: On the increased climate sensitivity in the EC-Earth model from CMIP5 to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3465-3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3465-2020, 2020.
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., Taylor, K. E.: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020.
Zhu, J., Poulsen, C. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 378-379, 2020.