Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

[en] Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.

Research center :

SPHERES - ULiège

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Hofer, S.

Lang, Charlotte ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Amory, Charles ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Kittel, Christoph ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Delhasse, Alison ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Tedstone, A.

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Language :

English

Title :

Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

Publication date :

15 December 2020

Journal title :

Nature Communications

eISSN :

2041-1723

Publisher :

Nature Publishing Group, United Kingdom

Volume :

Pages :

6289

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Additional URL :

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8

Funders :

F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
CÉCI - Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif [BE]

Available on ORBi :

since 16 December 2020

Statistics

Number of views

82 (9 by ULiège)

Number of downloads

61 (6 by ULiège)

More statistics

Scopus citations^®

Scopus citations^®
without self-citations

OpenCitations

Bibliography

IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. & Meyer, L.A.) (IPCC (2014).
Fettweis, X. et al. Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR. Cryosphere 7, 469–489 (2013). DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-469-2013
Fettweis, X. et al. GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. Cryosphere 14, 3935–3958 (2020). DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020
Van Den Broeke, M. R. et al. On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change. Cryosphere 10, 1933–1946 (2016). DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016
van den Broeke, M. et al. Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss: recent developments in observation and modeling. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 3, 345–356 (2017). DOI: 10.1007/s40641-017-0084-8
Enderlin, E. M. et al. An improved mass budget for the Greenland ice sheet. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 866–872 (2014).
Aschwanden, A. et al. Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium. Sci. Adv. 5, eaav9396 (2019).
Delhasse, A., Fettweis, X., Kittel, C., Amory, C. & Agosta, C. Brief communication: impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Cryosphere 12, 3409–3418 (2018). DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018
Hofer, S., Tedstone, A. J., Fettweis, X. & Bamber, J. L. Cloud microphysics and circulation anomalies control differences in future Greenland melt. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 523–528 (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0507-8
Box, J. E. et al. Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers. Cryosphere 6, 821–839 (2012). DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-821-2012
Ryan, J. C. et al. Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt amplified by snowline migration and bare ice exposure. Sci. Adv. 5, eaav3738 (2019).
Tedstone, A. J. et al. Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet. Cryosphere 11, 2491–2506 (2017). DOI: 10.5194/tc-11-2491-2017
Tedstone, A. J. et al. Algal growth and weathering crust state drive variability in western greenland ice sheet ice albedo. Cryosphere 14, 521–538 (2020). DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-521-2020
Cook, J. M. et al. Glacier algae accelerate melt rates on the western Greenland Ice Sheet. Cryosphere Discuss. 1–31 (2019).
Ryan, J. C. et al. Dark zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet controlled by distributed biologically-active impurities. Nat. Commun. 9, 1–10 (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02088-w
Tan, I., Storelvmo, T. & Zelinka, M. D. Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity. Science 352, 224–227 (2016). DOI: 10.1126/science.aad5300
Tan, I. & Storelvmo, T. Evidence of strong contributions from mixed-phase clouds to Arctic climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 2894–2902 (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081871
Wang, W., Zender, C. S., vanÂ As, D. & Miller, N. B. Spatial distribution of meltseason cloud radiative effects over Greenland: evaluating satellite observations, reanalyses, and model simulations against in-situ measurements. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD028919 (2018).
Storelvmo, T. Aerosol effects on climate via mixed-phase and ice clouds. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 45, 199–222 (2017). DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012240
Hanna, E., Fettweis, X. & Hall, R. J. Brief communication: recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models. Cryosphere 12, 3287–3292 (2018).
Hofer, S., Tedstone, A. J., Fettweis, X. & Bamber, J. L. Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Sci. Adv. 3, e1700584 (2017).
Hanna, E. et al. Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change. Nature 498, 51–9 (2013). DOI: 10.1038/nature12238
Hanna, E. et al. Atmospheric and oceanic climate forcing of the exceptional Greenland ice sheet surface melt in summer 2012. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 1022–1037 (2014). DOI: 10.1002/joc.3743
Hanna, E., Cropper, T. E., Hall, J. & Cappelen, J. Greenland Blocking Index 1851-2015: a regional climate change signal. Int. J. Climatol. 4861, 4847–4861 (2016). DOI: 10.1002/joc.4673
Knutti, R. & Sedláček, J. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 369–373 (2013). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1716
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G. & Saba, V. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature 556, 191–196 (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5
Stroeve, J. C. et al. Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 (2012).
Hahn, L. C., Storelvmo, T., Hofer, S., Parfitt, R. & Ummenhofer, C. C. Importance of orography for Greenland cloud and melt response to atmospheric blocking. J. Clim. 33, 4187–4206 (2020).
Ruan, R. et al. Decelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melt driven by positive summer North Atlantic oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030689 (2019).
Gettelman, A. et al. High climate sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2). Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 8329–8337 (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083978
Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
Voldoire, A. et al. Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK experiments with CNRM-CM6-1. J. Adv. Modeling Earth Syst. 11, 2177–2213 (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001683
Andrews, T. et al. Forcings, feedbacks, and climate sensitivity in hadgem3-gc3.1 and ukesm1. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 11, 4377–4394 (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001866
Zelinka, M. D. et al. Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, 1–12 (2020). DOI: 10.1029/2019GL085782
Nowicki, S. et al. Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models. Cryosphere 14, 2331–2368 (2020). DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Gallée, H. & Schayes, G. Development of a three-dimensional meso-γ primitive equation model: Katabatic winds simulation in the area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica. Monthly Weather Rev. 122, 671–685 (1994). DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0671:DOATDM>2.0.CO;2
Gallée, H. & Gallée, H. Simulation of the Mesocyclonic Activity in the Ross Sea, Antarctica. Monthly Weather Rev. 123, 2051–2069 (1995).
Fettweis, X. Reconstruction of the 1979-2006 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR. Cryosphere 1, 21–40 (2007). DOI: 10.5194/tc-1-21-2007
Fettweis, X. et al. Reconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model. Cryosphere 11, 1015–1033 (2017).
Moss, R. H. et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747–756 (2010). DOI: 10.1038/nature08823
Planton, S. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1447–1466 (IPCC, 2013).
Screen, J. A. & Simmonds, I. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature 464, 1334–1337 (2010). DOI: 10.1038/nature09051
Screen, J. A., Simmonds, I., Deser, C. & Tomas, R. The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic Sea ice loss. J. Clim. 26, 1230–1248 (2013). DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1
Hermann, M., Papritz, L. & Wernli, H. A lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale greenland melt events during 1979–2017. Weather Clim. Dyn. 1, 497–518 (2020). DOI: 10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020
SIMIP Community. Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL086749 (2020).
Zhu, J., Poulsen, C. J. & Otto-Bliesner, B. L. High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 378–379 (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0764-6
Le clec’h, S. et al. Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model. Cryosphere 13, 373–395 (2019). DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-373-2019
Riahi, K. et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017).
Barthel, A. et al. Cmip5 model selection for ismip6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and antarctica. Cryosphere 14, 855–879 (2020). DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-855-2020
Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011). DOI: 10.1002/qj.828
Kittel, C. et al. Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR. Cryosphere 12, 3827–3839 (2018). DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018
Lang, C., Fettweis, X. & Erpicum, M. Stable climate and surface mass balance in Svalbard over 1979-2013 despite the Arctic warming. Cryosphere 9, 83–101 (2015). DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-83-2015
Agosta, C. et al. Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979-2015) and identification of dominant processes. Cryosphere 13, 281–296 (2019). DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-281-2019
Delhasse, A. et al. Brief communication: evaluation of the near-surface climate in era5 over the greenland ice sheet. Cryosphere 14, 957–965 (2020). DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-957-2020
Gallée, H., Guyomarc’h, G. & Brun, E. Impact of snow drift on the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance: possible sensitivity to snow-surface properties. Bound. Layer. Meteorol. 99, 1–19 (2001). DOI: 10.1023/A:1018776422809
Vionnet, V. et al. The detailed snowpack scheme Crocus and its implementation in SURFEX v7.2. Geoscientifi.c Model Dev. 5, 773–791 (2012). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-5-773-2012
Tedesco, M. & Fettweis, X. Unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) drive the 2019 exceptional melting season over the greenland ice sheet. Cryosphere 14, 1209–1223 (2020). DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020