Reference : Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispe...
Scientific journals : Article
Life sciences : Phytobiology (plant sciences, forestry, mycology...)
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/252327
Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities
English
Zanatta, Florian* [> >]
Engler, Robin* [> >]
Collart, Flavien* mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie de l'évolution et de la conservation - aCREA-Ulg >]
Broennimann, Olivier [> >]
Mateo, Ruben G. [> >]
Papp, Beata [> >]
Muñoz, Jesus [> >]
Baurain, Denis mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences de la vie > Phylogénomique des eucaryotes >]
Guisan, Antoine* [> >]
Vanderpoorten, Alain* mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie de l'évolution et de la conservation - aCREA-Ulg >]
* These authors have contributed equally to this work.
2020
Nature Communications
Nature Publishing Group
11
5601
Yes (verified by ORBi)
International
2041-1723
United Kingdom
[en] Bryophyte ; Climate change ; Distribution ; Dispersion ; Modelling
[en] The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.
CÉCI - Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif ; FRIA - Fonds pour la Formation à la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture ; Tier-1 ; ULiège - Université de Liège ; F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique
Researchers ; Professionals
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/252327
10.1038/s41467-020-19410-8

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