Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

[en] The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

Disciplines :

Phytobiology (plant sciences, forestry, mycology...)

Author, co-author :

Zanatta, Florian ^✱

Engler, Robin ^✱

Collart, Flavien ^✱; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie de l'évolution et de la conservation - aCREA-Ulg

Broennimann, Olivier

Mateo, Ruben G.

Papp, Beata

Muñoz, Jesus

Baurain, Denis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences de la vie > Phylogénomique des eucaryotes

Guisan, Antoine ^✱

Vanderpoorten, Alain ^✱; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie de l'évolution et de la conservation - aCREA-Ulg

^✱ These authors have contributed equally to this work.

Language :

English

Title :

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

Publication date :

2020

Journal title :

Nature Communications

eISSN :

2041-1723

Publisher :

Nature Publishing Group, United Kingdom

Volume :

Pages :

5601

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

Tier-1 supercomputer
CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Funders :

FRIA - Fonds pour la Formation à la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture [BE]
ULiège - Université de Liège [BE]
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]

Available on ORBi :

since 10 November 2020

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