[en] The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.
Research Center/Unit :
Sphères - SPHERES
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Goelzer, H.
Nowicki, S.
Payne, A.
Larour, E.
Seroussi, H.
Lipscomb, W.
Gregory, J.
Abe-Ouchi, A.
Shepherd, A.
Simon, E.
Agosta, C.
Alexander, P.
Aschwanden, A.
Barthel, A.
Calov, R.
Chambers, C.
Choi, Y.
Cuzzone, J.
Dumas, C.
Edwards, T.
Felikson, D.
Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Aschwanden, A., Aalgeirsdóttir, G., and Khroulev, C.: Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states, The Cryosphere, 7, 1083-1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, 2013.
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., and Truffer, M.: Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured, Nat. Commun., 7, 10524, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10524, 2016.
Bales, R. C., Guo, Q., Shen, D., Mcconnell, J. R., Du, G., Burkhart, J. F., Spikes, V. B., Hanna, E., and Cappelen, J.: Annual accumulation for Greenland updated using ice core data developed during 2000-2006 and analysis of daily coastal meteorological data, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D06116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011208, 2009.
Barker, S., Knorr, G., Edwards, R. L., Parrenin, F., Putnam, A. E., Skinner, L. C., Wolff, E., and Ziegler, M.: 800, 000 Years of Abrupt Climate Variability, Science, 334, 347-351, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203580, 2011.
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855-879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020.
Beckmann, A. and Goosse, H.: A parameterization of ice shelfocean interaction for climate models, Ocean Modell., 5, 157-170, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00019-7, 2003.
Beckmann, J., Perrette, M., Beyer, S., Calov, R., Willeit, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model, The Cryosphere, 13, 2281-2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019.
Benn, D. I., Cowton, T., Todd, J., and Luckman, A.: Glacier Calving in Greenland, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 3, 282-290, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0070-1, 2017.
Bernales, J., Rogozhina, I., Greve, R., and Thomas, M.: Comparison of hybrid schemes for the combination of shallow approximations in numerical simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 11, 247-265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017, 2017.
Blatter, H.: Velocity and stress fields in grounded glaciers: A simple algorithm for including deviatoric stress gradients, J. Glaciol., 41, 333-344, https://doi.org/10.3189/S002214300001621X, 1995.
Bondzio, J. H., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Humbert, A., and Larour, E. Y.: Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: Application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, The Cryosphere, 10, 497-510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-497-2016, 2016.
Box, J.: Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance Reconstruction. Part II: Surface Mass Balance (1840-2010), J. Clim., 26, 6974-6989, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00518.1, 2013.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417-424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Calov, R., Beyer, S., Greve, R., Beckmann, J., Willeit, M., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Humbert, A., and Ganopolski, A.: Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model, The Cryosphere, 12, 3097-3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018.
Calov, R., Robinson, A., Perrette, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Simulating the Greenland ice sheet under present-day and palaeo constraints including a new discharge parameterization, The Cryosphere, 9, 179-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 1137-1216, 2013.
Citterio, M. and Ahlstrøm, A. P.: Brief communication "The aerophotogrammetric map of Greenland ice masses", The Cryosphere, 7, 445-449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-445-2013, 201.
Cogley, J. G.: Area of the Ocean, Mar. Geod., 35, 379-388, https://doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2012.709476, 2012.
Csatho, B. M., Schenk, A. F., van der Veen, C. J., Babonis, G., Duncan, K., Rezvanbehbahani, S., van den Broeke, M. R., Simonsen, S. B., Nagarajan, S., and van Angelen, J. H.: Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 18478-18483, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411680112, 2014.
Cuzzone, J. K., Morlighem, M., Larour, E., Schlegel, N., and Seroussi, H.: Implementation of higher-order vertical finite elements in ISSM v4.13 for improved ice sheet flow modeling over paleoclimate timescales, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1683-1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1683-2018, 2018.
Cuzzone, J. K., Schlegel, N.-J., Morlighem, M., Larour, E., Briner, J. P., Seroussi, H., and Caron, L.: The impact of model resolution on the simulated Holocene retreat of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), The Cryosphere, 13, 879-893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-879-2019, 2019.
Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Hvidberg, C. S., Steffensen, J. P., Sveinbjoernsdottir, A. E., Jouzel, J., and Bond, G. C.: Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record, Nature, 364, 218-220, https://doi.org/10.1038/364218a0, 1993.
de Boer, B., Stocchi, P., and van deWal, R. S.W.: A fully coupled 3-D ice-sheet-sea-level model: Algorithm and applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141-2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014.
Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Gregory, J. M., Hoffman, M., Huybrechts, P., Payne, A. J., Perego, M., Price, S., Quiquet, A., and Ritz, C.: Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance-elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 8, 195-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014.
Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Gregory, J. M., Hoffman, M., Huybrechts, P., Payne, A. J., Perego, M., Price, S., Quiquet, A., and Ritz, C.: Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance-elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 8, 181-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014.
Ettema, J., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Van Meijgaard, E., Van De Berg, W. J., Bamber, J. L., Box, J. E., and Bales, R. C.: Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by highresolution climate modeling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038110, 2009.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fausto, R. S., Ahlstrom, A. P., Van As, D., Boggild, C. E., and Johnsen, S. J.: A new present-day temperature parameterization for Greenland, J. Glaciol., 55, 95-105, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214309788608985, 2009.
Fettweis, X., Box, J. E., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Lang, C., van As, D., Machguth, H., and Galleé, H.: Reconstructions of the 1900-2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model, The Cryosphere, 11, 1015-1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017.
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Galleé, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469-489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013.
Fettweis, X., Hofer, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Amory, C., Aoki, T., Berends, C. J., Born, A., Box, J. E., Delhasse, A., Fujita, K., Gierz, P., Goelzer, H., Hanna, E., Hashimoto, A., Huybrechts, P., Kapsch, M.-L., King, M. D., Kittel, C., Lang, C., Langen, P. L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Liston, G. E., Lohmann, G., Mernild, S. H., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Mottram, R. H., Niwano, M., Noël, B., Ryan, J. C., Smith, A., Streffing, J., Tedesco, M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M., van deWal, R. S.W., van Kampenhout, L., Wilton, D., Wouters, B., Ziemen, F., and Zolles, T.: GrSMBMIP: Intercomparison of the modelled 1980-2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice sheet, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-321, in review, 2020.
Fox Maule, C., Purucker, M. E., and Olsen, N.: Inferring magnetic crustal thickness and geothermal heat flux from crustal magnetic field models, Danish Climate Centre Report, 09-09, 2009.
Fürst, J. J., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Effect of higherorder stress gradients on the centennial mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 7, 183-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, 2013.
Fürst, J. J., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming, The Cryosphere, 9, 1039-1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, 2015.
Goelzer, H.: Dataset for "The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6", Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3939037, 2020c.
Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Fürst, J. J., Andersen, M. L., Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Nick, F. M., Payne, A. J., and Shannon, S. R.: Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations, J. Glaciol., 59, 733-749, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182, 2013.
Goelzer, H., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 3, 291-302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0073-y, 2017.
Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Edwards, T., Beckley, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Aschwanden, A., Calov, R., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Kennedy, J. H., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Rodehacke, C., Rückamp, M., Saito, F., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Sun, S., van de Wal, R., and Ziemen, F. A.: Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: An ISMIP6 intercomparison, Cryosphere, 12, 1433-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018.
Goelzer, H., Noël, B. P. Y., Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Lipscomb, W. H., van de Wal, R. S. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections, The Cryosphere, 14, 1747-1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020a.
Goelzer, H., Coulon, V., Pattyn, F., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R.: Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 833-840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020b.
Goldberg, D. N.: A variationally derived, depth-integrated approximation to a higher-order glaciological flow model, J. Glaciol., 57, 157-170, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311795306763, 2011.
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J., Trusel, L. D., and Edwards, T. L.: Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65-72, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019.
Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Hughes, C.W., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., Fukimori, I., Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Cozannet, G. L., Ponte, R. M., Stammer, D., Tamisiea, M. E., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1251-1289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z, 2019.
Greve, R.: Geothermal heat flux distribution for the Greenland ice sheet, derived by combining a global representation and information from deep ice cores, Polar Data Journal, 3, 22-36, https://doi.org/10.20575/00000006, 2019.
Greve, R. and Blatter, H.: Comparison of thermodynamics solvers in the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS, Polar Sci., 10, 11-23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2015.12.004, 2016. Greve, R. and SICOPOLIS Developer Team: SICOPOLIS v5.1, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3727511, 2019.
Greve, R., Chambers, C., and Calov, R.: ISMIP6 future projections for the Greenland ice sheet with the model SICOPOLIS, Technical report, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3971251, 2020.
Helsen, M. M., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Berg, W. J., and Oerlemans, J.: Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: Application to the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 6, 255-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012.
Hindmarsh, R. C. A.: A numerical comparison of approximations to the Stokes equations used in ice sheet and glacier modeling, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 109, F01012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JF000065, 2004.
Howat, I. M., Negrete, A., and Smith, B. E.: The Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) land classification and surface elevation data sets, The Cryosphere, 8, 1509-1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1509-2014, 2014.
Huybrechts, P.: Sea-level changes at the LGM from ice-dynamic reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the glacial cycles, Quat. Sci. Rev., 21, 203-231, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00082-8, 2002.
Huybrechts, P. and de Wolde, J.: The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming, J. Clim., 12, 2169-2188, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2169:TDROTG>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Huybrechts, P., Janssens, I., Poncin, C., and Fichefet, T.: The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate changes in the 21st century by interactive coupling of an AOGCM with a thermomechanical ice-sheet model, Ann. Glaciol., 35, 409-415, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756402781816537, 2002.
Imbrie, J., Boyle, E. A., Clemens, S. C., Duffy, A., Howard, W. R., Kukla, G., Kutzbach, J., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. C., Molfino, B., Morley, J. J., Peterson, L. C., Pisias, N. G., Prell, W. L., Raymo, M. E., Shackleton, N. J., and Toggweiler, J. R.: On the Structure and Origin of Major Glaciation Cycles 1. Linear Responses to Milankovitch Forcing, Paleoceanography, 7, 701-738, https://doi.org/10.1029/92PA02253, 1992.
Joughin, I., Smith, B., Howat, I., and Scambos, T.: MEa-SUREs Multi-year Greenland Ice Sheet Velocity Mosaic, Version 1, Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center, https://doi.org/10.5067/QUA5Q9SVMSJG, 2016.
Joughin, I., Smith, B., Howat, I. M., Scambos, T., and Moon, T.: Greenland flow variability from ice-sheetwide velocity mapping, J. Glaciol., 56, 415-430, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310792447734, 2010.
Joughin, I. A. N., Smith, B. E., and Howat, I. M.: A complete map of Greenland ice velocity derived from satellite data collected over 20 years, J. Glaciol., 64, 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2017.73, 2017.
Kleiner, T. and Humbert, A.: Numerical simulations of major ice streams in Western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, under wet and dry basal conditions, J. Glaciol., 60, 215-232, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J006, 2017.
Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and Rignot, E.: Continental scale, high order, high spatial resolution, ice sheet modeling using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002140, 2012.
Le clec'h, S., Charbit, S., Quiquet, A., Fettweis, X., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., Wyard, C., and Ritz, C.: Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 13, 373-395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019.
LeMeur, E. and Huybrechts, P.: A comparison of different ways of dealing with isostasy: Examples from modeling the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle, Ann. Glaciol., 23, 309-317, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500013586, 1996.
Lipscomb, W. H., Price, S. F., Hoffman, M. J., Leguy, G. R., Bennett, A. R., Bradley, S. L., Evans, K. J., Fyke, J. G., Kennedy, J. H., Perego, M., Ranken, D. M., Sacks, W. J., Salinger, A. G., Vargo, L. J., and Worley, P. H.: Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387-424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019.
Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., He, F., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R., Clark, P. U., Carlson, A. E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D., Jacob, R., Kutzbach, J., and Cheng, J.: Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bolling-Allerod Warming, Science, 325, 310-314, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171041, 2009.
Morlighem, M., Bondzio, J., Seroussi, H., Rignot, E., Larour, E., Humbert, A., and Rebuffi, S.: Modeling of Store Gletscher's calving dynamics, West Greenland, in response to ocean thermal forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2659-2666, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067695, 2016.
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Seroussi, H., and Larour, E.: Deeply incised submarine glacial valleys beneath the Greenland ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 7, 418-422, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2167, 2014.
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Seroussi, H., Larour, E., Ben Dhia, H., and Aubry, D.: Spatial patterns of basal drag inferred using control methods from a full-Stokes and simpler models for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043853, 2010.
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël, B. P. Y., Cofaigh, C. Ó., Palmer, S., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: Complete bed topography and ocean bathymetry mapping of Greenland from multi-beam echo sounding combined with mass conservation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11051-11061, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074954, 2017.
Morlighem, M., Wood, M., Seroussi, H., Choi, Y., and Rignot, E.: Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge, The Cryosphere, 13, 723-734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, 2019.
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Bjørk, A. A., van den Broeke, M., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Noël, B., Scheuchl, B., and Wood, M.: Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 9239, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904242116, 2019.
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., van Meijgaard, E., Kuipers Munneke, P., van de Wal, R. S. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Evaluation of the updated regional climate model RACMO2.3: Summer snowfall impact on the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 9, 1831-1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015.
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., Machguth, H., Lhermitte, S., Howat, I., Fettweis, X., and van den Broeke, M. R.: A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958-2015), The Cryosphere, 10, 2361-2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016.
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., van Wessem, J. M., van Meijgaard, E., van As, D., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Kuipers Munneke, P., Smeets, C. J. P. P., van Ulft, L. H., van de Wal, R. S. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2-Part 1: Greenland (1958-2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 811-831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018.
Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331-2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020.
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521-4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016.
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B. C., Hinkel, J., van De Wal, R. S. W., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., CifuentesJara, M., DeConto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. R., V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegriá, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. M. Weyer, 2019.
Pattyn, F.: A new three-dimensional higher-order thermomechanical ice sheet model: Basic sensitivity, ice stream development, and ice flow across subglacial lakes, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2382, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jb002329, 2003.
Pollack, H. N., Hurter, S. J., and Johnson, J. R.: Heat flow from the Earth's interior: Analysis of the global data set, Rev. Geophys., 31, 267-280, https://doi.org/10.1029/93RG01249, 1993.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: A simple inverse method for the distribution of basal sliding coefficients under ice sheets, applied to Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 6, 953-971, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-953-2012, 2012.
Prescott, P. R., Kenneally, J. P., and Hughes, T. J.: Relating crevassing to non-linear strain in the floating part of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, Ann. Glaciol., 36, 149-156, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756403781816392, 2017.
Price, S. F., Payne, A. J., Howat, I. M., and Smith, B. E.: Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 8978-8983, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1017313108, 2011.
Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Ritz, C., Peyaud, V., and Roche, D. M.: The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): Calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5003-5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, 2018.
Rastner, P., Bolch, T., Mölg, N., Machguth, H., Le Bris, R., and Paul, F.: The first complete inventory of the local glaciers and ice caps on Greenland, The Cryosphere, 6, 1483-1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1483-2012, 2012.
RGI Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory-A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 6.0: Technical Report, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Colorado, USA. Digital Media, https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60, 2017.
Rignot, E., Gogineni, S., Joughin, I., and Krabill, W.: Contribution to the glaciology of northern Greenland from satellite radar interferometry, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 34007-34019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD900071, 2001.
Rignot, E. and Mouginot, J.: Ice flow in Greenland for the International Polar Year 2008-2009, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L11501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051634, 2012.
Rignot, E. and Steffen, K.: Channelized bottom melting and stability of floating ice shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031765, 2008.
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts, J.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011.
Rignot, E., Xu, Y., Menemenlis, D., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Li, X., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., den Broeke, M. v., Fenty, I., Cai, C., An, L., and Fleurian, B. d.: Modeling of oceaninduced ice melt rates of five west Greenland glaciers over the past two decades, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6374-6382, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068784, 2016.
Rogozhina, I., Petrunin, A. G., Vaughan, A. P. M., Steinberger, B., Johnson, J. V., Kaban, M. K., Calov, R., Rickers, F., Thomas, M., and Koulakov, I.: Melting at the base of the Greenland ice sheet explained by Iceland hotspot history, Nat. Geosci., 9, 366-369, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2689, 2016.
Rückamp, M., Falk, U., Frieler, K., Lange, S., and Humbert, A.: The effect of overshooting 1.5-C global warming on the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1169-1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, 2018.
Rückamp, M., Goelzer, H., and Humbert, A.: Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: The AWI contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland using ISSM, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-329, in review, 2020.
Rückamp, M., Greve, R., and Humbert, A.: Comparative simulations of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under simplified Paris Agreement scenarios with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM, Polar Sci., 21, 14-25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.12.003, 2019.
Schlegel, N.-J., Wiese, D. N., Larour, E. Y., Watkins, M. M., Box, J. E., Fettweis, X., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Application of GRACE to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (2003-2012), The Cryosphere, 10, 1965-1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, 2016.
Schoof, C.: The effect of cavitation on glacier sliding, Proc. R. Soc. A, 461, 609-627, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2004.1350, 2005.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Schoof, C. and Hindmarsh, R. C. A.: Thin-Film Flows with Wall Slip: An Asymptotic Analysis of Higher Order Glacier Flow Models, The Quarterly Journal of Mechanics and Applied Mathematics, 63, 73-114, https://doi.org/10.1093/qjmam/hbp025, 2010.
Seroussi, H. and Morlighem, M.: Representation of basal melting at the grounding line in ice flow models, The Cryosphere, 12, 3085-3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, 2018.
Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Larour, E., Rignot, E., and Khazendar, A.: Hydrostatic grounding line parameterization in ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 8, 2075-2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2075-2014, 2014.
Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Khazendar, A., Larour, E., and Mouginot, J.: Dependence of century-scale projections of the Greenland ice sheet on its thermal regime, J. Glaciol., 59, 1024-1034, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG13J054, 2013.
Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Larour, E., Aubry, D., Ben Dhia, H., and Kristensen, S. S.: Ice flux divergence anomalies on 79north Glacier, Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047338, 2011.
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hatterman, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033-3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020.
Shapiro, N. M. and Ritzwoller, M. H.: Inferring surface heat flux distributions guided by a global seismic model: Particular application to Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 223, 213-224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011, 2004.
Slater, D. A., Felikson, D., Straneo, F., Goelzer, H., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Fettweis, X., and Nowicki, S.: Twentyfirst century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution, The Cryosphere, 14, 985-1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020.
Slater, D. A., Straneo, F., Felikson, D., Little, C. M., Goelzer, H., Fettweis, X., and Holte, J.: Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting, The Cryosphere, 13, 2489-2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Impact of thermomechanical ice sheet coupling on a model of the 100 kyr ice-age cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 9517-9545, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200120, 1999.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Greenland glacial history, borehole constraints, and Eemian extent, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2143, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB001731, 2003.
The IMBIE Team: Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018, Nature, 579, 233-239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2, 2019.
van Angelen, J. H., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B., and Lenaerts, J. T. M.: Contemporary (1960-2012) Evolution of the Climate and Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Surv. Geophys., 35, 1155-1174, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-013-9261-z, 2014.
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): Project framework, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3228-3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014.
Weertman, J.: On the Sliding of Glaciers, J. Glaciol., 3, 33-38, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000024709, 1957.
Xu, Y., Rignot, E., Fenty, I., Menemenlis, D., and Flexas, M. M.: Subaqueous melting of Store Glacier, west Greenland from three-dimensional, high-resolution numerical modeling and ocean observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4648-4653, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50825, 2013.
Zwally, H. J., Giovinetto, M. B., Beckley, M. A., and Saba, J. L.: Antarctic and Greenland Drainage Systems, available at: Http://icesat4.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo-data/ant-grn-drainage-systems.php (last access: 15 August 2020), 2012.
