flow annual maxima; peaks over threshold; trend detection; nonstationary flood frequency analysis; climate change; Wallonia; débits maximums annuels; POT; tendances; analyse fréquentielle non stationnaire; changements climatiques; Wallonie
Abstract :
[en] This study aims at analysing trends in high flows by examining annual maxima (AM), peaks over threshold (POTs) and the number of peaks per year (frequency) in 84 catchments across the Walloon region of Belgium. Trends were identified using statistical tests (regression analysis, Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests).
Almost 12 % of the sites show a trend in the magnitude of AM and frequency, and 6% show a trend in the magnitude of POTs. Globally, more negative trends have been detected, but the proportion of positive trends is higher in the Scheldt catchment than in the Meuse catchment. The results of nonstationary analysis indicate important changes in the magnitude of the 100-year flood (up to 18 % increase/11 % decrease in 10 years) and the frequency of peak flows (up to 42 % increase/31 % decrease). These changes could therefore impact future flood risk management in Wallonia. However, the time-series are short (30–50 years) and some uncertainty remains. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the trends is essential to obtain better estimates of future flood flows. A first analysis of potential drivers reveals that changes in precipitation match the trends in high flows, and lower snowfall quantities and higher evapotranspiration rate, caused by the increase in temperature, could have contributed to the decrease in high flows in some regions. [fr] Cette étude a pour but d'analyser les tendances dans l’amplitude et la fréquence des pics de crue (débits maximums annuels, POTs et nombre de pics par an) dans 84 bassins versants de Wallonie. Les tendances ont été détectées à l'aide des tests statistiques de régression linéaire, Mann-Kendall et Pettitt.
Presque 12% des stations de mesure analysées montrent une tendance significative dans l’amplitude des maximums annuels et la fréquence, et 6% montrent une tendance dans l’amplitude des POTs. Globalement, le nombre de tendances négatives est plus élevé, mais la proportion de tendances positives est plus grande dans le bassin de l’Escaut que dans le bassin de la Meuse. Les résultats de l’analyse fréquentielle non stationnaire indiquent des changements importants dans l'amplitude et la fréquence des crues de période de retour de 100 ans (jusqu'à 18% d'augmentation/11% de diminution en 10 ans pour l'amplitude, et jusqu'à 42% d'augmentation/31% de diminution pour la fréquence). Ces changements pourraient dès lors avoir des répercussions sur la gestion des crues en Wallonie. Cependant, les séries chronologiques analysées sont courtes (30 à 50 ans) et une certaine incertitude persiste. Comprendre les mécanismes responsables des tendances est essentiel afin d’obtenir de meilleures estimations des débits de crue futurs. Une première analyse des facteurs potentiellement responsables révèle que les changements dans les précipitations correspondent aux tendances dans les débits de crue, et que les quantités de neige plus faibles ainsi que les taux d’évapotranspiration plus élevés, causés par l’augmentation des températures, pourraient avoir contribué à la diminution des débits de crue dans certaines régions.
Disciplines :
Environmental sciences & ecology
Author, co-author :
Grandry, Maud ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Echanges Eau-Sol-Plantes
Gailliez, Sébastien; Service public de Wallonie > Agriculture, Ressources naturelles et Environnement > Direction des Cours d'Eau non navigables
Brostaux, Yves ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Modélisation et développement
Degré, Aurore ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Echanges Eau-Sol-Plantes
Language :
English
Title :
Looking at trends in high flows at a local scale: The case study of Wallonia (Belgium)
Alternative titles :
[fr] Analyse des tendances dans les débits de crue à l'échelle locale : L'étude de cas de la Wallonie
Publication date :
October 2020
Journal title :
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
eISSN :
2214-5818
Publisher :
Elsevier, Netherlands
Volume :
31
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Name of the research project :
HydroTrend
Funders :
SPW Agriculture, Ressources naturelles et Environnement - Service Public de Wallonie. Agriculture, Ressources naturelles et Environnement
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