Estimation of present and future soil water balance and its impacts on wheat yields in African regions north of the equator using a dynamic vegetation model

Climate warming and growing population are hot topics for agriculture and food security in Africa. In this
context, the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model is run over Africa north of the equator to project future soil water balance
and its impact on yields of wheat (a culture whose distribution is projected to increase rapidly given the huge demand on the
continent). Forced with different climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, the uncertainties in yield projections are large.
Assuming CO2 effects, model results indicate a potential stimulation of wheat growth overcoming negative climate change
impacts with yield gains around 20 % in sub-Saharan regions above the equator (up to 40 % in Eastern Africa). Without CO2
fertilization, negative yield anomalies are projected under future climate trends (warming and drying). Since the agronomic
adaptation of African agriculture is an important source of uncertainties, the yield-increasing effect of irrigation is also
analysed.