Article (Scientific journals)
An Artificial Intelligence Solution for Electricity Procurement in Forward Markets
Théate, Thibaut; Mathieu, Sébastien; Ernst, Damien
2020In Energies, 13 (23)
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Keywords :
Artificial intelligence; Deep learning; Electricity procurement; Forward/Future markets
Abstract :
[en] Retailers and major consumers of electricity generally purchase an important percentage of their estimated electricity needs years ahead in the forward market. This long-term electricity procurement task consists of determining when to buy electricity so that the resulting energy cost is minimised, and the forecast consumption is covered. In this scientific article, the focus is set on a yearly base load product from the Belgian forward market, named calendar (CAL), which is tradable up to three years ahead of the delivery period. This research paper introduces a novel algorithm providing recommendations to either buy electricity now or wait for a future opportunity based on the history of CAL prices. This algorithm relies on deep learning forecasting techniques and on an indicator quantifying the deviation from a perfectly uniform reference procurement policy. On average, the proposed approach surpasses the benchmark procurement policies considered and achieves a reduction in costs of 1.65% with respect to the perfectly uniform reference procurement policy achieving the mean electricity price. Moreover, in addition to automating the complex electricity procurement task, this algorithm demonstrates more consistent results throughout the years. Eventually, the generality of the solution presented makes it well suited for solving other commodity procurement problems.
Research center :
Montefiore Institute - Montefiore Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science - ULiège
Disciplines :
Energy
Finance
Energy
Computer science
Computer science
Finance
Author, co-author :
Théate, Thibaut ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Dép. d'électric., électron. et informat. (Inst.Montefiore) > Smart grids
Mathieu, Sébastien ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Dép. d'électric., électron. et informat. (Inst.Montefiore) > Smart grids
Ernst, Damien  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Dép. d'électric., électron. et informat. (Inst.Montefiore) > Smart grids
Language :
English
Title :
An Artificial Intelligence Solution for Electricity Procurement in Forward Markets
Publication date :
December 2020
Journal title :
Energies
ISSN :
1996-1073
Publisher :
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), Switzerland
Volume :
13
Issue :
23
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Funders :
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
Commentary :
Citation: Théate, T.; Mathieu, S.; Ernst, D. An Artificial Intelligence Solution for Electricity Procurement in Forward Markets. Energies 2020, 13, 6435.
Available on ORBi :
since 11 June 2020

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