Future evolution of the hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods in the south‐east of Belgium by 2100 using a regional climate model

Wyard, Coraline; Scholzen, C.; Doutreloup, Sébastien; Hallot, Eric; Fettweis, Xavier

doi:10.1002/joc.6642

Article (Scientific journals)

Future evolution of the hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods in the south‐east of Belgium by 2100 using a regional climate model

Wyard, Coraline; Scholzen, C.; Doutreloup, Sébastien et al.

2021 • In International Journal of Climatology

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/247439

DOI
10.1002/joc.6642

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Abstract :

[en] In Belgium, most flood events occur in winter as a result of intense precipitation events but also through the abrupt melting of the snowpack that covers the Ardennes summits. These conditions favourable to floods exhibit a decreasing trend over 1959–2010 resulting from the reduction in snow accumulation, although extreme precipitation events show a positive, albeit non‐significant signal. In this study, the evolution of these trends in warmer climates is investigated by using future projections performed with the regional climate model MAR (“Modèle Atmosphérique Régional”) forced by two global models NorESM1‐M and MIROC5 under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models were selected from the CMIP5 archive after evaluation of their ability to represent the current (1976–2005) mean climate over Europe. By the end of the century, the results show an acceleration of the snow depletion resulting in fewer snowmelt‐associated flood risk days depending on the warming rate from the AOGCM forcing MAR. Regarding the impact of the evolution of extreme precipitation events on hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods, no significant change was found although these trends are subject to uncertainties due to model physics and natural variability.

Research center :

Sphères - SPHERES

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Wyard, Coraline

Scholzen, C.

Doutreloup, Sébastien ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Hallot, Eric

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Language :

English

Title :

Future evolution of the hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods in the south‐east of Belgium by 2100 using a regional climate model

Publication date :

2021

Journal title :

International Journal of Climatology

ISSN :

0899-8418

eISSN :

1097-0088

Publisher :

John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, United States - New Jersey

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Additional URL :

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6642

Funders :

F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
CÉCI - Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif [BE]

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