Bayesian Evidential Learning: a field validation using push-pull tests

Recent developments in uncertainty quantification show that a full inversion of model parameters is not always necessary to forecast the range of uncertainty of a specific prediction in Earth sciences. Instead, Bayesian evidential learning (BEL) uses a set of prior models to derive a direct relationship between data and prediction. This recent technique has been mostly demonstrated for synthetic cases. This paper demonstrates the ability of BEL to predict the posterior distribution of temperature in an alluvial aquifer during a cyclic heat tracer push-pull test. The data set corresponds to another push-pull experiment with different characteristics (amplitude, duration, number of cycles). This experiment constitutes the first demonstration of BEL on real data in a hydrogeological context. It should open the range of future applications of the framework for both scientists and practitioners.