Cloud microphysics and circulation anomalies control differences in future Greenland melt

[en] Recently, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has become the main source of barystatic sea-level rise. The increase in the GrIS melt is linked to anticyclonic circulation anomalies, a reduction in cloud cover and enhanced warm-air advection. The Climate Model Intercomparison Project fifth phase (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) do not capture recent circulation dynamics; therefore, regional climate models (RCMs) driven by GCMs still show significant uncertainties in future GrIS sea-level contribution, even within one emission scenario. Here, we use the RCM Modèle Atmosphèrique Règional to show that the modelled cloud water phase is the main source of disagreement among future GrIS melt projections. We show that, in the current climate, anticyclonic circulation results in more melting than under a neutral-circulation regime. However, we find that the GrIS longwave cloud radiative effect is extremely sensitive to the modelled cloud liquid-water path, which explains melt anomalies of +378 Gt yr–1 (+1.04 mm yr–1 global sea level equivalent) in a +2 °C-warmer climate with a neutral-circulation regime (equivalent to 21% more melt than under anticyclonic circulation). The discrepancies between modelled cloud properties within a high-emission scenario introduce larger uncertainties in projected melt volumes than the difference in melt between low- and high-emission scenarios.

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Hofer, Stefan ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Département de géographie

Tedstone, A.

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Bamber, J.

Language :

English

Title :

Cloud microphysics and circulation anomalies control differences in future Greenland melt

Publication date :

23 June 2019

Journal title :

Nature Climate Change

ISSN :

1758-678X

eISSN :

1758-6798

Publisher :

Nature Publishing Group, United Kingdom

Volume :

Pages :

523–528

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Additional URL :

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0507-8

Funders :

F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique

Available on ORBi :

since 25 June 2019

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