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Automated evaluation of levelized cost of energy of isolated micro-grids for energy planning purposes in developing countries
Balderrama Subieta, Sergio Luis; Lombardi, Francesco; Stevanato, Nicolo et al.
2019In PROCEEDINGS OF ECOS 2019
Peer reviewed
 

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Keywords :
Microgrids; Rural Electrification; Energy integration
Abstract :
[en] Countries around the world are preparing to give the last leap to accomplish a 100 % of rural energy access. Nonetheless, country-wide electrification planning requires the analysis of hundreds of un-electrified villages with different social, economical and geographical backgrounds. State-of-the-art planning models typically handle this computationally challenging task relying on highly-simplified technological char- acterizations, at the expense of a proper estimation of the cost-optimal potential of off-grid technologies, particularly micro-grids. In this paper, we propose a machine- learning method to improve such technological characterization while keeping the computational tractability of the problem under control. Firstly, field surveys from rural un-electrified villages in Bolivia are used as an input for a stochastic load generator model, creating several demand scenarios for a set of different village archetypes; secondly, renewable energy time series for representative locations of Bolivia are created using the NASA database. For each demand and renewables potential combination, a two-stage stochastic sizing model is adopted to obtain the corresponding cost-optimal micro-grid configuration. Finally, these data are used to train a Gaussian process regression with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) as dependent variable and the daily average demand, renewable energy, and techno- economic characteristics of the components as independent variables. The results show that the trained algorithm is ultimately able to identify the LCOE of micro- grids in given conditions, out of the training dataset, with satisfying accuracy and limited computational effort.
Disciplines :
Energy
Author, co-author :
Balderrama Subieta, Sergio Luis ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Form. doct. sc. ingé. & techno. (aéro. & mécan. - Paysage)
Lombardi, Francesco;  Politecnico di MIlano > Department of Energy
Stevanato, Nicolo;  Politecnico di Milano > Deparment of Energy
Peña, Gabriela;  KTH
Colombo, Emanuela;  Politecnico Di Milano > Deparment of Energy
Quoilin, Sylvain  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique
Language :
English
Title :
Automated evaluation of levelized cost of energy of isolated micro-grids for energy planning purposes in developing countries
Publication date :
2019
Event name :
THE 32ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EFFICIENCY, COST, OPTIMIZATION, SIMULATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ENERGY SYSTEMS
Event place :
Wrowclaw, Poland
Event date :
from 23-28 of june of 2019
Audience :
International
Main work title :
PROCEEDINGS OF ECOS 2019
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Available on ORBi :
since 09 June 2019

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