Reference : Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
Scientific journals : Article
Engineering, computing & technology : Computer science
Life sciences : Agriculture & agronomy
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/234786
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
English
Liu, B. [National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China]
Martre, P. [LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France]
Ewert, F. [Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany]
Porter, J. R. [Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand, Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM–IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France]
Challinor, A. J. [Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia]
Müller, C. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany]
Ruane, A. C. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States]
Waha, K. [CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia]
Thorburn, P. J. [CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia]
Aggarwal, P. K. [CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India]
Ahmed, M. [Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States, Department of agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan]
Balkovič, J. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria, Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia]
Basso, B. [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University East Lansing, East Lansing, MI, United States, W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States]
Biernath, C. [Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany]
Bindi, M. [Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy]
Cammarano, D. [James Hutton Institute, Dundee, United Kingdom]
De Sanctis, G. [GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy]
Dumont, Benjamin mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Agronomie, Bio-ingénierie et Chimie (AgroBioChem) > Ingénierie des productions végétales et valorisation >]
Espadafor, M. [IAS-CSIC, Department of Agronomy, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain]
Eyshi Rezaei, E. [Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany]
Ferrise, R. [Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy]
Garcia-Vila, M. [IAS-CSIC, Department of Agronomy, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain]
Gayler, S. [Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany]
Gao, Y. [Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States]
Horan, H. [CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia]
Hoogenboom, G. [Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States]
Izaurralde, R. C. [Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M Univ., Temple, TX, United States]
Jones, C. D. [Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States]
Kassie, B. T. [Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States]
Kersebaum, K. C. [Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany]
Klein, C. [Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany]
Koehler, A.-K. [Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom]
Maiorano, A. [LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France, European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy]
Minoli, S. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany]
Montesino San Martin, M. [Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark]
Naresh Kumar, S. [Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India]
Nendel, C. [Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany]
O’Leary, G. J. [Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, VIC, Australia]
Palosuo, T. [Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland]
Priesack, E. [Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany]
Ripoche, D. [US AgroClim, INRA, Avignon, France]
Rötter, R. P. [University of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Göttingen, Germany, Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany]
Semenov, M. A. [Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom]
Stöckle, C. [Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States]
Streck, T. [Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany]
Supit, I. [Water Systems & Global Change Group and WENR (Water & Food), Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands]
Tao, F. [Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China]
Van der Velde, M. [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy]
Wallach, D. [UMRAGIR, Castanet-Tolosan, France]
Wang, E. [CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, Australia]
Webber, H. [Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany]
Wolf, J. [Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands]
Xiao, L. [National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States]
Zhang, Z. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China]
Zhao, Zhigan []
Zhu, Y. [National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China]
Asseng, S. [Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States]
2019
Global Change Biology
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Yes (verified by ORBi)
International
1354-1013
1365-2486
[en] 1.5°C warming ; climate chang ; extreme low yield ; food security ; model ensemble ; wheat
[en] Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/234786
10.1111/gcb.14542

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