Article (Scientific journals)
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
Liu, B.; Martre, P.; Ewert, F. et al.
2019In Global Change Biology
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Keywords :
1.5°C warming; climate chang; extreme low yield; food security; model ensemble; wheat
Abstract :
[en] Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Disciplines :
Computer science
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Liu, B.;  National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
Martre, P.;  LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
Ewert, F.;  Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
Porter, J. R.;  Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand, Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM–IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France
Challinor, A. J.;  Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
Müller, C.;  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Ruane, A. C.;  NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
Waha, K.;  CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
Thorburn, P. J.;  CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
Aggarwal, P. K.;  CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India
Ahmed, M.;  Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States, Department of agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Balkovič, J.;  International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria, Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia
Basso, B.;  Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University East Lansing, East Lansing, MI, United States, W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
Biernath, C.;  Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
Bindi, M.;  Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Cammarano, D.;  James Hutton Institute, Dundee, United Kingdom
De Sanctis, G.;  GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy
Dumont, Benjamin  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Agronomie, Bio-ingénierie et Chimie (AgroBioChem) > Ingénierie des productions végétales et valorisation
Espadafor, M.;  IAS-CSIC, Department of Agronomy, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
Eyshi Rezaei, E.;  Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
Ferrise, R.;  Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Garcia-Vila, M.;  IAS-CSIC, Department of Agronomy, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
Gayler, S.;  Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Gao, Y.;  Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
Horan, H.;  CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
Hoogenboom, G.;  Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
Izaurralde, R. C.;  Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M Univ., Temple, TX, United States
Jones, C. D.;  Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Kassie, B. T.;  Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
Kersebaum, K. C.;  Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
Klein, C.;  Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
Koehler, A.-K.;  Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Maiorano, A.;  LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France, European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy
Minoli, S.;  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Montesino San Martin, M.;  Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark
Naresh Kumar, S.;  Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India
Nendel, C.;  Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
O’Leary, G. J.;  Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, VIC, Australia
Palosuo, T.;  Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
Priesack, E.;  Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
Ripoche, D.;  US AgroClim, INRA, Avignon, France
Rötter, R. P.;  University of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Göttingen, Germany, Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
Semenov, M. A.;  Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom
Stöckle, C.;  Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States
Streck, T.;  Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Supit, I.;  Water Systems & Global Change Group and WENR (Water & Food), Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
Tao, F.;  Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
Van der Velde, M.;  European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Wallach, D.;  UMRAGIR, Castanet-Tolosan, France
Wang, E.;  CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
Webber, H.;  Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
Wolf, J.;  Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
Xiao, L.;  National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
Zhang, Z.;  State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Zhao, Zhigan
Zhu, Y.;  National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
Asseng, S.;  Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
More authors (47 more) Less
Language :
English
Title :
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
Publication date :
2019
Journal title :
Global Change Biology
ISSN :
1354-1013
eISSN :
1365-2486
Publisher :
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Available on ORBi :
since 25 April 2019

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