Reference : Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 mode...
Scientific journals : Article
Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences : Earth sciences & physical geography
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/233879
Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
English
Bugmann, H. [Forest Ecology, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 22, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland]
Seidl, R. [University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, Wien, 1190, Austria]
Hartig, F. [Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstraße 31, Regensburg, 93053, Germany]
Bohn, F. [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany]
Brůna, J. [Institute of Botany, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic]
Cailleret, M. [Forest Ecology, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 22, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland, Research Unit Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland]
François, Louis mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
Heinke, J. [Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany]
Henrot, Alexandra-Jane mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
Hickler, T. [Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre BiK-F, Frankfurt/Main, Germany, Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main, Germany]
Hülsmann, L. [Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstraße 31, Regensburg, 93053, Germany, Research Unit Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland]
Huth, A. [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, Institute for Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, Germany, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany]
Jacquemin, Ingrid mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > DER Sc. et gest. de l'environnement (Arlon Campus Environ.) > Eau, Environnement, Développement >]
Kollas, C. [Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany]
Lasch-Born, P. [Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany]
Lexer, M. J. [University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, Wien, 1190, Austria]
Merganič, J. [Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, Zvolen, 96053, Slovakia]
Merganičová, K. [Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, Zvolen, 96053, Slovakia]
Mette, T. [Soil and Climate Department, Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (LWF), Freising, 85354, Germany]
Miranda, B. R. [USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Rhinelander, WI, United States]
Nadal-Sala, D. [Department de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, Barcelona, 08028, Spain]
Rammer, W. [University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, Wien, 1190, Austria]
Rammig, A. [Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany]
Reineking, B. [Irstea, LESSEM, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, 38000, France]
Roedig, E. [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany]
Sabaté, S. [Department de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, Barcelona, 08028, Spain, CREAF, Campus de Bellaterra Edifici C, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain]
Steinkamp, J. [Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre BiK-F, Frankfurt/Main, Germany]
Suckow, F. [Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany]
Vacchiano, G. [Università degli Studi di Milano, DISAA, Milano, 20123, Italy]
Wild, J. [Institute of Botany, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic]
Xu, C. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, United States]
Reyer, C. P. O. [Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany]
2019
Ecosphere
Wiley-Blackwell
10
2
Yes (verified by ORBi)
International
2150-8925
[en] Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10–40% per century under current climate and 20–170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics. © 2019 The Authors.
Agentúra na Podporu Výskumu a Vývoja, APVV: APVV-0480-12Austrian Science Fund, FWF: Y895-B25European Cooperation in Science and Technology
Researchers ; Professionals
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/233879
10.1002/ecs2.2616

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