Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale

[en] Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10–40% per century under current climate and 20–170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics. © 2019 The Authors.

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Bugmann, H.; Forest Ecology, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 22, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland

Seidl, R.; University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, Wien, 1190, Austria

Hartig, F.; Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstraße 31, Regensburg, 93053, Germany

Bohn, F.; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

Brůna, J.; Institute of Botany, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic

Cailleret, M.; Forest Ecology, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 22, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland, Research Unit Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland

François, Louis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques

Heinke, J.; Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques

Hickler, T.; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre BiK-F, Frankfurt/Main, Germany, Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main, Germany

More authors (22 more)

Language :

English

Title :

Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale

Publication date :

2019

Journal title :

Ecosphere

eISSN :

2150-8925

Publisher :

Wiley-Blackwell

Volume :

Issue :

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Funders :

APVV - Agentúra na podporu výskumu a vývoja
FWF - Austrian Science Fund
COST - European Cooperation in Science and Technology

Funding number :

Agentúra na Podporu Výskumu a Vývoja, APVV: APVV-0480-12; Austrian Science Fund, FWF: Y895-B25

Available on ORBi :

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