[en] A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data.
Disciplines :
Veterinary medicine & animal health
Author, co-author :
Casal, Jordi
Saegerman, Claude ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des maladies infectieuses et parasitaires (DMI) > Epidémiologie et analyse des risques appl. aux sc. vétér.
Bertagnoli, Stephane
Meyer, Gilles
Ganiere, Jean Pierre
Caufour, Philippe
De Clercq, Kris
Jacquiet, Philippe
Hautefeuille, Claire
Etore, Florence
Napp, Sebastian
Language :
English
Title :
A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France.
Publication date :
2019
Journal title :
PLoS ONE
eISSN :
1932-6203
Publisher :
Public Library of Science, United States - California
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