Reference : Contrasting climate risks predicted by dynamic vegetation and ecological niche-based ...
Scientific journals : Article
Life sciences : Environmental sciences & ecology
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/227197
Contrasting climate risks predicted by dynamic vegetation and ecological niche-based models applied to tree species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest
English
Raghunathan, Poornima mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > > > Form. doct. sc. (biol. orga. & écol. - Bologne)]
François, Louis mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
Dury, Marie mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
Hambuckers, Alain mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale >]
2019
Regional Environmental Change
Springer-Verlag GmbH
19
219-232
Yes (verified by ORBi)
International
1436-3798
1436-378X
Germany
[en] climate change ; dynamic vegetation model ; primates ; Leontopithecus chrysomelas ; tree species distributions
[en] Climate change is a threat to natural ecosystems. To evaluate this threat and, where possible, respond, it is useful to understand the potential impacts climate change could have on species’ distributions, phenology, and productivity. Here, we compare future scenario outcomes between a dynamic vegetation model (DVM; CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere (CARAIB)) and an ecological niche-based model (ENM; maximum entropy model) to outline the risks to tree species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, comprising the habitats of several endemic species, including the endangered primate Leontopithecus chrysomelas (golden-headed lion tamarin; GHLT), our species of interest. Compared to MaxENT, theDVMpredicts larger present-day species ranges. Conversely, MaxENT ranges are closer to sampled distributions of the realised niches. MaxENT results for two future scenarios in four general circulation models suggest that up to 75% of the species risk losing more than half of their original distribution. CARAIB simulations are more optimistic in scenarios with and without accounting for potential plant-physiological effects of increased CO2, with less than 10% of the species losing more than 50% of their range. Potential gains in distribution outside the original area do not necessarily diminish risks to species, as the potential new zones may not be easy to colonise. It will also depend on the tree species’ dispersal ability. So far, within the current range of L. chrysomelas, CARAIB continues to predict persistence of most resource trees, while MaxENT predicts the loss of up to 19 species out of the 59 simulated. This research highlights the importance of choosing the appropriate modelling approach and interpretation of results to understand key processes.
FNRS-FRIA, WBI
Researchers ; Professionals ; Students
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/227197
10.1007/s10113-018-1405-8
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1405-8

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