Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments

[en] Urban development may increase the risk of future floods because of local changes in hydrological conditions and an increase in flood exposure that arises from an increasing population and expanding infrastructure within flood-prone zones. Existing urban land use change models generally consider the expansion process and do not consider the densification of existing urban areas. In this paper, we simulate 24 possible urbanization scenarios in Wallonia region (Belgium) until 2100. These scenarios are generated using an agent-based model that considers urban expansion and densification as well as development restrictions in flood-prone zones. The extents of inundation and water depths for each scenario are determined by the WOLF 2D hydraulic model for steady floods corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Our results show that future flood damages and their spatial distributions vary remarkably from one urbanization scenario to another. A spatial planning policy oriented towards strict development control in flood-prone zones leads to a substantial mitigation of the increased flood damage. By contrast, a spatial planning policy exclusively oriented to infill development with no development restrictions in flood-prone zones would be the most detrimental in terms of exposure to flood risk. Our study enables the identification of the most sensitive locations for flood damage related to urban development, which can help in the design of more resilient spatial planning strategies and localize zones with high levels of flood risk for each scenario.

Research center :

LEMA

Disciplines :

Engineering, computing & technology: Multidisciplinary, general & others

Author, co-author :

Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed El Saeid ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > LEMA (Local environment management and analysis)

Bruwier, Martin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > Hydraulics in Environmental and Civil Engineering

Archambeau, Pierre ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > HECE (Hydraulics in Environnemental and Civil Engineering)

Erpicum, Sébastien ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > HECE (Hydraulics in Environnemental and Civil Engineering)

Pirotton, Michel ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > HECE (Hydraulics in Environnemental and Civil Engineering)

Dewals, Benjamin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > HECE (Hydraulics in Environnemental and Civil Engineering)

Teller, Jacques ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > Urbanisme et aménagement du territoire

Language :

English

Title :

Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments

Publication date :

November 2018

Journal title :

Journal of Environmental Management

ISSN :

0301-4797

eISSN :

1095-8630

Publisher :

Elsevier, Atlanta, Georgia

Volume :

225

Pages :

193-204

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718308533?via%3Dihub

Name of the research project :

FloodLand

Funders :

The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions for project number 13/17-01 financed by the French Community of Belgium (Wallonia-Brussels Federation) and through the European Regional Development Fund – FEDER (Wal-e-Cities Project).

Available on ORBi :

since 13 August 2018

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