Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds

Lagerholm, V. K.; Sandoval-Castellanos, E.; Vaniscotte, A.; Potapova, O. R.; Tomek, T.; Bochenski, Z. M.; Shepherd, P.; Barton, N.; Van Dyck, M.-C.; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, J.; Yoccoz, N. G.; Dalén, L.; Stewart, J. R.

doi:10.1111/gcb.13522

Article (Scientific journals)

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds

Lagerholm, V. K.; Sandoval-Castellanos, E.; Vaniscotte, A. et al.

2017 • In Global Change Biology, 23 (4), p. 1425-1435

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/224715

DOI
10.1111/gcb.13522

PubMed
27762483

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Keywords :

Lagopus; Pleistocene; DNA; Last Glacial Maximum; Aves; Lagopus lagopus; Lagopus mutus; Mammalia; Salix; Europe; Adaptation, Physiological; Animals; Birds; Climate; Climate Change; Cold Temperature; DNA, Ancient; Ecosystem

Abstract :

[en] Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Disciplines :

Environmental sciences & ecology
History

Author, co-author :

Lagerholm, V. K.; Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden, Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

Sandoval-Castellanos, E.; Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden, Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico

Vaniscotte, A.; Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway

Potapova, O. R.; Mammoth Site of Hot Springs, SD, Inc., Hot Springs, NC, United States

Tomek, T.; Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland

Bochenski, Z. M.; Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland

Shepherd, P.; British Geological Survey, Nottingham, United Kingdom

Barton, N.; Institute of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Van Dyck, M.-C.; Institute for the Analysis of Change in Contemporary and Historical Societies, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Miller, Rebecca ; Université de Liège - ULiège

More authors (4 more)

Language :

English

Title :

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds

Publication date :

2017

Journal title :

Global Change Biology

ISSN :

1354-1013

eISSN :

1365-2486

Publisher :

Wiley, Oxford, United Kingdom

Volume :

Issue :

Pages :

1425-1435

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Name of the research project :

FP6, Sixth Framework Programme

Funders :

Sapienza - Sapienza Università di Roma
ESC - European Society of Cardiology
Sverige Vetenskapsrådet
NHM - National Museum of Natural History

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