Estimation des températures au début du dernier millénaire dans l’ouest du Groenland : résultats préliminaires issus de l’application d’un modèle glaciologique de type degré‑jour sur le glacier du Lyngmarksbræen
Biette, M.; Jomelli, V.; Favier, V.et al.
2018 • In Géomorphologie: Relief, Processus, Environnement, 24, p. 31-41
[fr] Le dernier millénaire est défini comme une période climatique « stable » parsemée d’anomalies. La première est
l’Optimum Climatique Médiéval (OCM : ~950 AD à 1250 AD), période au moins aussi chaude qu’aujourd’hui et
associée à un retrait des glaciers dans l’hémisphère nord. La seconde est le Petit Âge Glaciaire (PAG : ~1450 AD
à 1850 AD), marquée par des températures froides et associée à une avancée des glaciers. Cependant, plusieurs
études ont montré que des avancées glaciaires s’étaient produites pendant cette période de l’OCM en Terre de
Baffin et sur l’île de Disko dans l’ouest du Groenland d’une ampleur plus importante qu’au PAG, suggérant un
refroidissement marqué à cette époque en contradiction avec les reconstitutions de températures à l’échelle
hémisphérique. Dans cette étude, nous proposons d’estimer les conditions de températures à la fin de l’OCM
pouvant expliquer ces extensions glaciaires sur l’île de Disko à partir d’un modèle glaciologique de type degré-
jour contraint par les sorties du Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR). Cette simulation a été réalisée sur
le glacier du Lyngmarksbræen qui montre une succession originale de moraines emboitées datées du dernier
millénaire. Les résultats montrent que les scénarios les plus probables reposent sur des températures de l’air de
l’ordre de -1,3°C à -1,6°C plus basses à la fin de l’OCM qu’à la fin du XXe
siècle si l’on considère une variation
d’environ ± 10 % des précipitations. Des tests de sensibilité sont ensuite réalisés sur différents paramètres du
modèle glaciologique afin de mieux contraindre l’incertitude des estimations de température. [en] The last millennium is defined as a “stable” climatic period with anomalies such as the Little Ice Age (LIA: ~1450 AD
to 1850 AD), a period marked by low temperatures and associated with a glacier advance. Also the Medieval Climate
Anomaly (MCA: ~950 AD to 1250 AD), considered as a period at least as warm as nowadays and associated with
glacier retreat in the northern hemisphere. However, several studies have shown that glacial advances have occurred
during the MCA period in the Baffin Land and western Greenland, in contradiction with hemispheric‑scale
temperature reconstructions. In this study we propose temperature conditions for the last millennium determined
from a recent study on the glacial fluctuations of the Lyngmarksbræen glacier and the application of an empirical
positive degree‑day model (PDD) constrained by the outputs of the regional climate MAR atmospheric model. This
simulation was conducted on the Lyngmarksbræen glacier, which shows an original succession of nested moraines
dated from the last millennium. The results show that the most likely scenarios are based on air temperatures in
the range of ‑1.3°C to ‑1.6°C lower during the MCA than at the end of the 20th century if we consider a variation of
about ± 10% in precipitation. Sensitivity tests are then made on different parameters of the glaciological model to
better constrain the uncertainty of the temperature estimations.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Biette, M.
Jomelli, V.
Favier, V.
Chenet, M.
Agosta, Cécile ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Ho Tong Minh, D.
Ose, K.
Language :
English
Title :
Estimation des températures au début du dernier millénaire dans l’ouest du Groenland : résultats préliminaires issus de l’application d’un modèle glaciologique de type degré‑jour sur le glacier du Lyngmarksbræen
Alternative titles :
[en] Temperature estimation at the beginning of the last millennium in western Greenland: preliminary results from the application of a degree‑day glaciological model on the Lyngmarksbræen glacier
AbramN.J.,McGregorH.V.,TierneyJ.E.,EvansM.N.,McKayN.P., Kaufman D.S., the PAGES 2k Consortium (2016) – Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents. Nature, 536, 411-418. DOI: 10.1038/nature19082
Amante C., Eakins B.W. (2009) – ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis. NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS, NGDC-24, 19 p. DOI: 10.7289/V5C8276M
Andersen K.K., Ditlevsen P.D., Rasmussen S.O., Clausen H.B., Vinther B.M., Johnsen S.J., Stefensen J.P. (2006) – Retrieving a common accumulation record from Greenland ice cores for the past 1800 years. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111 (D15), D15106. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006765
Antunes N., Banks W., d’Errico F. (2014) – Evaluating Viking eco-cultural niche variability between the Medieval Climate Optimum and the Little Ice Age: a feasibility study. In García Moreno A., García Sánchez J., Maximiano Castillejo A. and Rios Garaizar J. (Eds.): Debating Spatial Archaeology. Landscape and Spatial Analysis in Archaeology. Publican, Santander, 113-130.
Blard P.‑H., Lavé J., Pik R., Wagnon P., Bourlès D. (2007) – Persistence of full glacial conditions in the central Paciic until 15,000 years ago. Nature, 449, 591-594. DOI: 10.1038/nature06142
Box J.E. (2002) – Survey of Greenland instrumental temperature records: 1873-2001. International Journal of Climatology, 22, 1829-1847. DOI: 10.1002/joc.852
Braithwaite R.J. (1985) – Calculation of degree-days for glacier-climate research. Zeitung Glelscherkd Glazialgeol, 20, 1984, 1-8.
Braithwaite R.J. (1995) – Positive degree-day factors for ablation on the Greenland ice sheet studied by energy-balance modelling. Journal of Glaciology, 41 (137), 153-160. DOI: 10.3189/S0022143000017846
Braithwaite R.J., Zhang Y. (2000) – Sensitivity of Mass Balance of Five Swiss Glaciers to Temperature Changes Assessed by Tuning a Degree-Day Model. Journal of Glaciology, 46, 7-14. DOI: 10.3189/172756500781833511
Braithwaite R.J., Raper S.C. (2007) – Glaciological conditions in seven contrasting regions estimated with the degree-day model. Annals of Glaciology, 46, 297-302. DOI: 10.3189/172756407782871206
Charbit S., Dumas C., Kageyama M., Roche D.M., Ritz C. (2013) – Inluence of ablation-related processes in the build-up of simulated Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle. he Cryosphere, 7, 681-698. DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-681-2013
D’Andrea W.J., Huang Y., Fritz S.C., Anderson N.J. (2011) – Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 9765-9769. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1101708108
Favier V., Agosta C., Genthon C., Arnaud L., Trouvillez A., Gallée H. (2011) – Modeling the mass and surface heat budgets in a coastal blue ice area of Adelie Land, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, F03017. DOI: 10.1029/2010JF001939
Favier V., Verfaillie D., Berthier E., Menegoz M., Jomelli V., Kay J.E., Ducret L., Malbéteau Y., Brunstein D., Gallée H., Park Y.‑H., Rinterknecht V. (2016) – Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean. Scientiic Reports, 6, 32396. DOI: 10.1038/srep32396
Fettweis X., Box J.E., Agosta C., Amory C., Kittel C., Lang C., van As D., Machguth H., Gallée H. (2017) – Reconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model. he Cryosphere, 11, 1015-1033. DOI: 10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017
Francou B., Vincent C. (2007) – Les Glaciers à l’épreuve du climat. Paris, IRD Edition. Ed. Belin, Paris, 274 p.
Gabbi J., Carenzo M., Pellicciotti F., Bauder A., Funk M. (2014) – A comparison of empirical and physically based glacier surface melt models for long-term simulations of glacier response. Journal of Glaciology, 60, 1140-1154. DOI: 10.3189/2014JoG14J011
Gallée H., Schayes G. (1994) – Development of a hree Dimensional Mesogamma Primitive Equations Model, Katabatic Winds Simulation in the area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica. Monthly Weather Review, 122, 671-685.
Gardner A.S., Sharp M.J., Koerner R.M., Labine C., Boon S., Marshall S.J., Burgess D.O., Lewis D. (2009) – Near-Surface Temperature Lapse Rates over Arctic Glaciers and heir Implications for Temperature Downscaling. Journal of Climate, 22, 4281-4298. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2845.1
Gerbaux M. (2005) – Reconstruction du bilan de masse des glaciers alpins et impact d’un changement climatique. hèse de doctorat, université de Grenoble 1, 132 p.
GIEC(2013)–AnnexeIII:Glossaire,Planton,S.(Eds.):Changements climatiques 2013: Les éléments scientiiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail I au cinquième Rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat. Stocker T. F., Qin D., Plattner G.-K., Tignor M., Allen S. K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Y., Bex V., Midgley P. M. (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Royaume-Uni et New York, NY, États-Unis d’Amérique, 1447-1466. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.031
Graham L. (1974) – Synthetic interferometer radar for topographic mapping. Proceedings of the IEEE, 62, 763-768. DOI: 10.1109/PROC.1974.9516
Greenland Ice‑core Project (GRIP) Members (1993) – Climate instability during the last interglacial period recorded in the GRIP ice core. Nature, 364, 203-207. DOI: 10.1038/364203a0.
Greuell W., Genthon C. (2003) – Modelling land ice surface mass balance. In Bamber J.L., Payne A.J. (Eds.): Mass balance of the cryosphere: observations and modelling of contemporary and future changes. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 117-168.
Hachemi K. (2009) – Apport de l’interférométrie Radar SAR pour la réalisation d’un MNA (modèle numérique d’altitude) sur la région subcarpatique de Buzäu (Roumanie). Journal Analele Universitatii Bucuresti, Année LVIII, 5-38.
Hansen B.U., Elberling B., Humlum O., Nielsen N. (2006) – Meteorological trends (1991–2004) at Arctic Station, Central West Greenland (69 15’N) in a 130 years perspective. Geograisk Tidsskrit-Danish Journal of Geography, 106, 45-55.
Harper J.T., Humphrey N.F. (2003) – High altitude Himalayan climate inferred from glacial ice lux. Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (14), 1764. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017329.
Hock R. (2003) – Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. Journal of Hydrology, 282, 104-115. DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9
Holzhauser H., Magny M., Zumbuühl H.J. (2005) – Glacier and lake-level variations in west-central Europe over the last 3500 years. he Holocene, 15, 789-801. DOI: 10.1191/0959683605hl853ra
Humlum O. (1998) – he climatic signiicance of rock glaciers. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 9 (4), 375-395. DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1530(199810/12)9:4<375::AID-PPP301>3.0.CO;2-0
Huss M., Funk M., Ohmura A. (2009) – Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation. Geophysical Research Letters, 36. DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040789
Ingolfsson O., Frich P., Funder S., Humlum O. (1990) – Paleoclimatic implications of an early Holocene glacier advance on Disko Island, West Greenland. Boreas, 19, 297-311. DOI: 10.1111/j.1502-3885.1990.tb00133.x
Jomelli V., Khodri M., Favier V., Brunstein D., Ledru M.‑P., Wagnon P., Blard P.‑H., Sicart J.‑E., Braucher R., Grancher D., Bourlès D.L., Braconnot P., Vuille M. (2011) – Irregular tropical glacier retreat over the Holocene epoch driven by progressive warming. Nature, 474, 196-199. DOI: 10.1038/nature10150
JomelliV.,LaneT.,FavierV.,Masson‑DelmotteV.,SwingedouwD., Rinterknecht V., Schimmelpfennig I., Brunstein D., Verfaillie D., Adamson K., Leanni L., Mokadem F., ASTER Team (2016) – Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic. Scientiic Reports, 6, 32984. DOI: 10.1038/srep32984
Kelly M.A., Lowell T.V. (2009) – Fluctuations of local glaciers in Greenland during latest Pleistocene and Holocene time. Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 2088-2106. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.12.008
Kobashi T., Severinghaus J.P., Kawamura K. (2008) – Argon and nitrogen isotopes of trapped air in the GISP2 ice core during the Holocene epoch (0-11,500 B.P.): Methodology and implications for gas loss processes. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 72 (19), 4675-4686. DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2008.07.006.
Langebroek P.M., Nisancioglu K.H. (2016) – Moderate Greenland ice sheet melt during the last interglacial constrained by present-day observations and paleo ice core reconstructions. he Cryosphere Discussions, 1-35. DOI: 10.5194/tc-2016-15
Larsen L.M., Pedersen A.K. (2009) – Petrology of the Paleocene Picrites and Flood Basalts on Disko and Nuussuaq, West Greenland. Journal of Petrology, 50, 1667-1711. DOI: 10.1093/petrology/egp048
Le Roy Ladurie E. (1967) – Histoire du climat depuis l’an mil. Collection Nouvelle bibliothèque scientiique, Flammarion, Paris, 376 p.
Levy L.B., Kelly M.A., Lowell T.V., Hall B.L., Hempel L.A., Honsaker W.M., Lusas A.R., Howley J.A., Axford Y.L. (2014) – Holocene luctuations of Bregne ice cap, Scoresby Sund, east Greenland: a proxy for climate along the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. Quaternary Science Reviews, 92, 357-368. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.06.024
Massa C., Bichet V., Gauthier E., Perren B.B., Mathieu O., Petit C., Monna F., Giraudeau J., Losno R., Richard H. (2012) – A 2500 year record of natural and anthropogenic soil erosion in South Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews, 32, 119-130. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.11.014
Mernild S.H., Hanna E., McConnell J.R., Sigl M., Beckerman A.P., Yde J.C., Cappelen J., Malmros J.K., Stefen K. (2014) – Greenland precipitation trends in a long-term instrumental climate context (1890-2012): evaluation of coastal and ice core records: Precipitation in Greenland. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 303-320. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3986
Millet L., Massa C., Bichet V., Frossard V., Belle S., Gauthier E. (2014) – Anthropogenic versus climatic control in a high-resolution 1500-year chironomid stratigraphy from a southwestern Greenland lake. Quaternary Research, 81, 193-202. DOI: 10.1016/j.yqres.2014.01.004
Moreno‑Chamarro E., Zanchettin D., Lohmann K., Luterbacher J., Jungclaus J.H. (2017) – Winter ampliication of the European Little Ice Age cooling by the subpolar gyre. Scientiic Reports, 7, 9981. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-07969-0
Nielsen N., Hansen B. U., Humlum O., Rasch M. (1995) – Meteorological Observations at Arctic Station, Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn), Central West Greenland. Geograisk Tidsskrit, Danish Journal of Geography, 95, 97-104.
North Greenland Ice Core Project Members (2004) – High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period. Nature, 431, 147-151. DOI: 10.1038/nature02805
Olesen O.B., Braithwaite R.J. (1989) – Field Stations for Glacier-Climate Research, West Greenland. In Oerlemans J. (Ed.): Glacier luctuations and climatic change, Glaciology and Quaternary Geology, 6, Springer, Dordrecht, 207-218.
PAGES 2k Consortium (2013) – Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1797
PAGES 2k Consortium (2017) – A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientiic Data, 4, 170088. DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.88
Quervain M. (1979) – Schneedeckenablation und Gradtag im Versuchsfeld Weisluhjoch. Mitteilung VAW/ETH Zürich, 41, 215-232.
Six D., Wagnon P., Sicart J.E., Vincent C. (2009) – Meteorological controls on snow and ice ablation for two contrasting months on Glacier de Saint-Sorlin, France. Annals of Glaciology, 50, 66-72. DOI: 10.3189/172756409787769537
Six D, Vincent C. (2014) – Sensitivity of mass balance and equilibrium-line altitude to climate change in the French Alps. Journal of Glaciology, 60 (223), 867-878. DOI: 10.3189/2014JoG14J014
Solomina O., Bradley R.S., Jomelli V., Geirsdottir A., Kaufman D., Koch J., Masiokas M., Miller G., Nesje A., Nicolussi K., Owen L., Wanner H., Wiles G., Yang B. (2016) – Glacier luctuations in the last 2000 years. Quaternary Science Reviews, 149, 61-90. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.04.008
Torres R., Snoeij P., Geudtner D., Bibby D., Davidson M., Attema E., Potin P., Rommen B., Floury N., Brown M., Traver I.N., Deghaye P., Duesmann B., Rosich B., Miranda N., Bruno C., L’Abbate M., Croci R., Pietropaolo A., Huchler M., Rostan F. (2012) – GMES Sentinel-1 mission. Remote Sensing of Environment, 120, 9-24. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2011.05.028
Uppala S., Dee D., Kobayashi S., Berrisford P., Simmons A. (2008) –Towards a climate data assimilation system: status update of ERA-Interim. ECMWF Newsletter, 115, 12-18. DOI: 10.21957/byinox4wot
Vincent C., Le Meur E., Six D., Funk M. (2005) – Solving the paradox of the end of the Little Ice Age in the Alps. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L09706. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL022552
Vinther B.M. (2011) – he medieval climate anomaly in Greenland ice core data. PAGES news, 19 (1), 27.
Wallace J.M., Hobbs P.V. (1977) – Atmospheric science: An introductory survey. Academic Press, New York, 467 p.
Winsor K., Carlson A.E., Rood D.H. (2014) – 10Be dating of the Narsarsuaq moraine in southernmost Greenland: evidence for a late-Holocene ice advance exceeding the Little Ice Age maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, 98, 135-143. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.04.026
Yde J.C., Knudsen N.T. (2007) – 20th-century glacier luctuations on Disko Island (Qeqertarsuaq), Greenland. Annals of Glaciology, 46, 209-214. DOI: 10.3189/172756407782871558
Young N.E., Schweinsberg A.D., Briner J.P., Schaefer J.M. (2015) – Glacier maxima in Bain Bay during the Medieval Warm Period coeval with Norse settlement. Science Advances, 1 (11), e1500806. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500806