From happenstance to modality and beyond: verbo-nominal constructions with chance(s

This corpus-based study focusses on constructions with the noun chance(s), which are polysemous in Present-day English. Firstly, within the modal domain, chance(s) combines with light verbs (be, have, get) to form dynamic (1), deontic, epistemic (2), and volitional verbo-nominal patterns (VNPs). (1)-(2) show grammaticalized uses, with chance(s) incorporated in a larger unit that is secondary vis-à-vis the propositional lexical material it modifies (cf. Boye & Harder 2012), which is coded in what is traditionally regarded as noun complement clauses.

(1) if he had a dropsy fit sitting there I wouldn’t have a chance to grab him because he goes that quick down. (WB) [I wouldn’t be able to grab ...]
(2) if you’re really interested in the course then chances are you’ll go out and buy the books (WB) [‘it is likely you …’]

Secondly, chance(s) is found in lexicalized expressions (e.g. take your chances), and thirdly in “caused modality” expressions (cf. Talmy’s 2000 “greater modal system”), i.e. augmented event structures that add a (positive/negative) causative operator to a basic modal meaning, e.g. (3).

(3) While executing their children’s killers would not bring back their loved ones, it would at least act as a catharsis, giving all concerned a better chance to move on with their lives (WB) [‘enable; make it possible for them’]

Hence, in addition to enriching the modal repertoire they also go beyond core modal auxiliaries in that they still have lexical uses and can express caused modal meanings.
Based on synchronic data from WordBanksOnline (WB), this study will first give detailed lexicogrammatical descriptions of VNPs with chance, verifying such decategorialization reflexes as determiner drop, reduction in adjectives, and loss of singular-plural contrast. Secondly, it will trace these constructions’ diachronic development based on the Penn Historical Corpora, the Corpus of Early Modern English Texts, and the Corpus of Late Modern English Texts 3.0.
It will be shown that the earliest VNPs with chance(s) involve happenstance contexts, cf. (4), just like the source constructions of perhaps and maybe (cf. López-Couso & Méndez-Naya 2017).

(4) my chaunce was to be att the recoverynge off his sone me lorde Russelle (PPCEME, 1500-1570) [It was my hap, fortune to …]

We will reconstruct the diachronic relations between this (now archaic, OED) happenstance construction and the (caused) modal constructions illustrated in (1)-(3), highlighting the role of negative polarity as trigger for the development of modal meaning, as has been reported for VNPs with (no) need [Authors], (no) doubt [Authors], and (no) wonder [Authors].

Corpora
WordbanksOnline Corpus https://wordbanks.harpercollins.co.uk/
PPCME2: Kroch, A. & Taylor, A. (2000). The Penn-Helsinki Parsed Corpus of Middle English (PPCME2). Department of Linguistics, University of Pennsylvania. CD-ROM, second edition, release 4.
PPCEME: Kroch, A., Santorini, B. & Delfs, L. (2004). The Penn-Helsinki Parsed Corpus of Early Modern English (PPCEME). Department of Linguistics, University of Pennsylvania. CD-ROM, first edition, release 3.
CEMET: De Smet, Hendrik. 2013. Spreading Patterns: Diffusional Change in the English System of Complementation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 13-15.
CLMET 3.0: Diller, H., De Smet, H., Tyrkkö, J. 2011. A European database of descriptors of English electronic texts. The European English Messenger 19, 21-35.

References
Boye, K., & P. Harder. 2012. Grammatical Status and Grammaticalization. Language 88: 1–44.
López-Couso, M. J. & Méndez-Naya, B. From happenstance to epistemic possibility: Corpus evidence for the adverbialization of happenstance expressions. ICAME 38, Prague, 24-28 May 2017.
OED = Oxford English Dictionary Online. Oxford University Press.
Talmy, L. 2000. Toward a Cognitive Semantics. Volume I. Concept Structuring Systems. Cambridge:, Massachusetts/London, England: The MIT Press.