Reference : Assessing the future evolution of climate extremes favouring floods using the regiona...
Scientific congresses and symposiums : Poster
Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences : Earth sciences & physical geography
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/222053
Assessing the future evolution of climate extremes favouring floods using the regional climate model MAR over the CORDEX.be domain
English
Wyard, Coraline mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie >]
Doutreloup, Sébastien mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie >]
Fettweis, Xavier mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie >]
13-Apr-2018
No
International
European Geosciences Union general assembly 2018
from 09-04-2018 to 13-04-2018
European Geosciences Union
Vienna
Austria
[en] Floods ; Belgium ; snow ; Ourthe ; climate modelling
[en] In Belgium, most flooding events occur in winter as a result of intense precipitation events but also to the abrupt melting of the snow that covers the Ardennes summits. These conditions favourable to floods exhibit a decreasing trend over the period 1959–2010 resulting from the reduction in snow accumulation thought extreme precipitation events show a positive but non-significant signal.
In this study, we investigate how these trends could evolve in a warmer climate by using future projections performed with the regional climate model MAR (for “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional”) in the framework of CORDEX.be, the Belgian EURO-CORDEX project. These future projections were obtained by nesting MAR into NorESM1-M and MIROC5 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Both these global models were selected from the CMIP5 archive after evaluation of their ability to represent the current (1976-2005) mean climate over Europe. This assessment is based on the skill score methodology.
Results show that the period 2071-2100 would be marked by a decrease in snowfall amount, in snow accumulation, and consequently in conditions favourable to floods generated by snowpack melting with respect to 1976-2005. Regarding total PPN amount and extremes, the signal is less clear as both GCMs simulate different patterns and trends.
Sphères - SPHERES
FRIA - Fonds pour la formation à la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture
Researchers ; Professionals ; Students
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/222053

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