Probabilistic Reliability Management Approach and Criteria for Power System Short-term Operational Planning

This paper develops a probabilistic decision making framework for reliability management
in the short-term operational planning context. We build upon our recent work, which proposed a probabilistic reliability management approach and criterion (RMAC) for the latest decision making opportunity of real-time system operation. Here, we transpose the RMAC to the preceding problem instance of short-term operational planning, wherein i) risk is aggravated by the uncertainty on power injections and weather conditions, and, ii) the problem scope concerns choosing `strategic' actions (e.g., starting additional generating units, granting outage requests for maintenance, etc.) to facilitate decision making during the forthcoming real-time system operation. To anticipate on the latter, we formalize the notion of a real-time `proxy' as a simplified model of the real-time decision making context, adequately accurate for the purpose of operational planning decision making. Stating a first proposal for such a proxy, we mathematically formulate the RMAC for short-term operational planning as a multi-stage stochastic decision making problem and demonstrate its main features by case studies on a modified version of the single area IEEE RTS-96 system.