Chances are verbo-nominal constructions with chance(s) are more polyfunctional than modal auxiliaries

In this corpus-based study we want to present a typology of verbo-nominal constructions (VNCs) with chance(s), and we will argue that they enrich Talmy’s (2000: 443ff) “greater modal system.” This system includes causative verbs such as make, let and have, in addition to core modal auxiliaries such as can and must. Both sets of verbs take bare infinitival complements and can semantically be analyzed in force-dynamic terms. However, causative verbs, like other open-class verbs with force-dynamic semantics, such as forbid, map modal roles onto argument structure roles differently, allowing the subject to code the Antagonist (I made him study vs. He must study).
Specifically, we will argue that VNCs with chance(s) enrich the greater modal system in three ways. Firstly, they expand the inventory of epistemic (2), dynamic (3), volitional (4) and deontic (5) modal expressions, as they appear to be functionally equivalent to modal auxiliaries. Secondly, they also go beyond the functional reach of core modal auxiliaries by still allowing lexical uses, as shown in (1), which is no longer possible for the core modals. Thirdly, they can express ‘caused modality’ in augmented event structures that add a (positive/negative) causative operator to the basic modal meaning, as in (6).

(1) Many also devote inside pages to the policies and characters of the three contenders, and assess their chances of winning (brspoken)
(2) I mean fair enough if you're really interested in the course then chances are you'll go out and buy the books (brspoken) [‘it is likely you go out and buy the books’]
(3) I love everything about this outfit but what makes it more special is that I'd never get the chance to wear something like this back home on a night out. (brwritten) [‘I would never be able to wear ...’]
(4) But chief executive Rick Parry is backing boss Rafael Benitez to lead a drive for honours that will convince local boy Gerrard to stay with the club he has supported since he was a boy. Parry said: “There is no chance of Stevie going in January. That just won’t happen. Our intention is that we will never let him go.” (brspoken) [‘ Stevie shall not go; we won’t let Stevie go’]
(5) What about erm do you think while you were at school there was anything that you weren’t allowed to do because you were a girl? -- Mm . <tc text="pause"/> E as well we had the chance to play football. (brspoken) [‘we were allowed to play football’]
(6) While executing their children's killers would not bring back their loved ones, it would at least act as a catharsis, giving all concerned a better chance to move on with their lives (brwritten) [enable: ‘make it possible for them’]

Based on synchronic data extracted from the British spoken and written subcorpora of WordBanksOnline, this study will provide detailed lexicogrammatical descriptions of the constructions featuring NPs with chance, taking into account such decategorialization reflexes as determiner drop, reduction in adjectives, loss of singular-plural contrast (cf. Brems & Davidse 2010; Davidse et al. 2015). This case study gives further support for Talmy’s “greater modal system”, as the VNCs studied evidence the conceptual connection between basic and caused modal meanings that is at the basis of this greater system.

Corpus
WordbanksOnline Corpus https://wordbanks.harpercollins.co.uk/

References
Brems, L. & K. Davidse. 2010. Complex subordinators derived from noun complement clauses. Acta Linguistica Hafniensia 42 (2): 101-116.
Davidse, Kristin, Simon De Wolf & An Van linden. 2015. The development of (there/it is / I have) no doubt expressing modal and interactional meaning. Journal of Historical Pragmatics 16 (1): 25-58.
Talmy, L. 2000. Toward a Cognitive Semantics. Volume I. Concept Structuring Systems. Cambridge: Massachusetts/London, England: The MIT Press.