Decrease in climatic conditions favouring floods in the south-east of Belgium over 1959-2010 using the regional climate model MAR

Wyard, Coraline; Scholzen, Chloé; Fettweis, Xavier; Van Campenhout, Jean; François, Louis

doi:10.1002/joc.4879

Article (Scientific journals)

Decrease in climatic conditions favouring floods in the south-east of Belgium over 1959-2010 using the regional climate model MAR

Wyard, Coraline; Scholzen, Chloé; Fettweis, Xavier et al.

2017 • In International Journal of Climatology, 37 (5), p. 2782–2796

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/201219

DOI
10.1002/joc.4879

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Keywords :

Regional Climate Modelling; Europe; Belgium; Ourthe; Floods; Snow; Precipitations

Abstract :

[en] The Ourthe River, in the south-east of Belgium, has a catchment area of 3,500 km2 and is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River. In the Ourthe, most of the flood events occur during winter and about 50% of them are due to heavy rainfall events combined to an abrupt melting of the snowpack covering the Ardennes massif during winter. This study aims to determine whether trends in extreme hydroclimatic events generating floods can be detected over the last century in Belgium, where a global warming signal can be observed. Hydroclimatic conditions favourable to floods were reconstructed over 1959- 2010 using the regional climate model MAR (“Modèle Atmosphérique Régional”) forced by the ERA-Interim/ERA-40, the ERA-20C and the NCEP/NCAR-v1 reanalyses. Extreme run-off events, which could potentially generate floods, were detected using run-off caused by precipitation events and snowpack melting from the MAR model. In the validation process, the MAR-driven temperature, precipitation and snow depth were successfully compared to daily weather data over the period 2008-2014 for 20 stations in Belgium. MAR also showed its ability to detect up to 90% of the hydroclimatic conditions which effectively generated observed floods in the Ourthe River over the period 1974- 2010. Conditions favourable to floods in the Ourthe River catchment present a negative trend over the period 1959-2010 as a result of a decrease in snow accumulation and a shortening of the snow season. This trend is expected to accelerate in a warmer climate. However, regarding the impact of the extreme precipitation events evolution on conditions favouring floods, the signal is less clear since the trends depend on the reanalysis used to force the MAR model.

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Wyard, Coraline ; Université de Liège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Scholzen, Chloé ; Université de Liège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Van Campenhout, Jean ; Université de Liège > Département de géographie > Hydrographie et géomorphologie fluviatile

François, Louis ; Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques

Language :

English

Title :

Decrease in climatic conditions favouring floods in the south-east of Belgium over 1959-2010 using the regional climate model MAR

Publication date :

April 2017

Journal title :

International Journal of Climatology

ISSN :

0899-8418

eISSN :

1097-0088

Publisher :

John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Volume :

Issue :

Pages :

2782–2796

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4879/abstract;jsessionid=B1B9373AFA4E8D99B0789F37672D13D1.f04t03

Funders :

FRIA - Fonds pour la Formation à la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture

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