Yield variability linked to climate uncertainty and nitrogen fertilisation

At the parcel scale, crop models such as STICS are powerful tools to study the effects of variable inputs such as management practices (e.g. nitrogen (N) fertilisation). In combination with a weather generator, we built up a general methodology that allows studying the yield variability linked to climate uncertainty, in order to assess the best N practice. Our study highlighted that, applying the Belgian farmer current N practice (60-60-60 kg N/ha), the yield distribution was found to be very asymmetric with a skewness of -1.02 and a difference of 5% between the mean (10.5 t/ha) and the median (11.05 t/ha) of the distribution. This implies that, under such practice, the probability for farmers to achieve decent yields, in comparison to the mean of the distribution, was the highest.