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16 March 2016
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Framework for Threat Based Failure Rates in Transmission System Operation
Perkin, Samuel; Bjornsson, Gudjon; Baldursdottir, Iris et al.
2016 • In Framework for Threat Based Failure Rates in Transmission System Operation
Peer reviewed
 

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Keywords :
Power System Operation; Reliability Management; Energy
Abstract :
[en] Reliability of electrical transmission systems isvpresently managed by applying the deterministic N-1 criterion, or some variant thereof. This means that transmission systems are designed with at least one level of redundancy, regardless of the cost of doing so, or the severity of the risks they mitigate. In an operational context, the N-1 criterion provides a reliability target but it fails to accurately capture the dynamic nature of short-term threats to transmission systems. Ongoing research aims to overcome this shortcoming by proposing new probabilistic reliability criteria. Such new criteria are anticipated to rely heavily on component failure rate calculations. This paper provides a threat modelling framework, using the Icelandic transmission system as an example, highlighting the need for improved data collection and failure rate modelling. The feasibility of using threat credibility indicators to achieve spatio-temporal failure rates, given minimal data, is explored in a case study of the Icelandic transmission system. The paper closes with a discussion on the assumptions and simplifications that are implicitly made in the formulation, and the additional work required for such an approach to be included in existing practices. Specifically, this paper is concerned only with short term and real-time management of electrical transmission systems.
Disciplines :
Electrical & electronics engineering
Author, co-author :
Perkin, Samuel;  Landsnet > System Operation and Market
Bjornsson, Gudjon;  Landsnet > System Operation and Market
Baldursdottir, Iris;  Landsnet > System Operation and Market
Palsson, Magni;  Landsnet > System Operation and Market
Kristjansson, Ragnar;  Reykjavik University > Department of Science and Engineering
Stefansson, Hlynur;  Reykjavik University > Department of Science and Engineering
Jensson, Pall;  Reykjavik University > Department of Science and Engineering
Karangelos, Efthymios ;  Université de Liège > Dép. d'électric., électron. et informat. (Inst.Montefiore) > Systèmes et modélisation
Wehenkel, Louis ;  Université de Liège > Dép. d'électric., électron. et informat. (Inst.Montefiore) > Systèmes et modélisation
Language :
English
Title :
Framework for Threat Based Failure Rates in Transmission System Operation
Publication date :
February 2016
Event name :
Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Sciences and Operations Management
Event place :
Be'er Sheeva, Israel
Event date :
from 15-02-2016 to 18-02-2016
Main work title :
Framework for Threat Based Failure Rates in Transmission System Operation
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
European Projects :
FP7 - 608540 - GARPUR - Generally Accepted Reliability Principle with Uncertainty modelling and through probabilistic Risk assessment
Funders :
CE - Commission Européenne

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