Reference : Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk...
Scientific journals : Article
Engineering, computing & technology : Geological, petroleum & mining engineering
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/183447
Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk aquifer
English
Goderniaux, Pascal [Université de Mons - UMONS > Géologie Appliquée > Hydrogéologie > >]
Brouyère, Serge mailto [Université de Liège > Département ArGEnCo > Hydrogéologie & Géologie de l'environnement >]
Wildemeersch, Samuel [SPAQuE > > > >]
Therrien, René [Université Laval > Department of Geology and Geological Engineering > > >]
Dassargues, Alain mailto [Université de Liège > Département ArGEnCo > Hydrogéologie & Géologie de l'environnement >]
18-Jun-2015
Journal of Hydrology
Elsevier Science
528
108-121
Yes (verified by ORBi)
International
0022-1694
[en] groundwater ; Climate change ; Uncertainty ; UCODE ; HydroGeoSphere ; Integrated model
[en] Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km2) in Belgium. We use a surface–subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios (2010–2085) and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.
Aquapôle - AQUAPOLE
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (Communauté française de Belgique) - F.R.S.-FNRS
Researchers ; Professionals
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/183447
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.018
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941500431X
The final and original paper can be found at : http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.018

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publi276-PascalGoderniauxJoH2015.pdfThe original paper is to find at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.018 Publisher postprint3.35 MBView/Open

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