[en] There is a wide recognition of the watershed scale as the right scale for global water management, notably in the context of the WFD. Hence, it often refers to international management and therefore to various pre-existing regional management tools, models or even objectives. In this study we aim at describing the collaborative assessment of climate change’s effect on low flow regime and the consequences on three water related sectors: drinking water production, agriculture and electricity production.
The paper highlights the choices that were made during the study that involved scientific teams, managers and stakeholders from the four main countries of the Meuse Basin. It shows that the methodological choices were operational and aimed at preserving existing methods and knowledge within each country. They led to hydrological scenarios comparable to the main available ensemble approaches and to methodologies well accepted within the concerned countries.
The results of the project highlight and quantify the water scarcity that the three sectors will have to face by the end of the century mainly regarding the electricity production. They also show that common allocation rules are necessary to manage water demand during future low flow periods.
Alexandrov, V.A., and Hoogenboom, G., 2000. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 67 (1–2), 45–63. doi: 10.1007/s007040070015
Asseng, S.,, 2004. Simulated wheat growth effected by rising temperature, increased water deficit and elevated atmospheric CO2. Field Crops Research, 85 (2–3), 85–102. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4290(03)00154-0
Bakker, A.M.R.,, 2014. Exploring the efficiency of bias corrections of regional climate model output for the assessment of future crop yields in Europe. Regional and Environmental Change, 14 (3), 865–877.
Bauwens, A., Sohier, C., and Degré, A., 2011. Hydrological response to climate change in the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments: contribution of a physically based model (Wallonia, Belgium). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (6), 1745–1756. doi: 10.5194/hess-15-1745-2011
Blenkinsop, S., and Fowler, H.J., 2007. Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology, 27 (12), 1595–1610. doi: 10.1002/joc.1538
Bonte, M., and Zwolsman, J.J.G., 2010. Climate change induced salinization of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production. Water Research, 44 (15), 4411–4424. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2010.06.004
Bunce, J.A., 2004. Carbon dioxide effects on stomatal responses to the environment and water use by crops under field conditions. Oecologia, 140 (1), 1–10. doi: 10.1007/s00442-003-1401-6
Cuculeanu, V., Marica, A., and Simota, C., 1999. Climate change impact on agricultural crops and adaptation options in Romania. Climate Research, 12 (2–3), 153–160. doi: 10.3354/cr012153
De Wit, M.,, 2007. Impact of climate change on low-flows in the River Meuse. Climatic Change, 82 (3–4), 351–372. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9195-2
Easterling, W.E.,, 2001. Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios: Part II. Accounting for adaptation and CO2 direct effects. Climatic Changes, 51 (2), 173–197. doi: 10.1023/A:1012267900745
Ewert, F.,, 2005. Future scenarios of European agriculture land use. I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 107 (2–3), 101–116. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.003
Finger, R., and Calanca, P., 2011. Risk management strategies to cope with climate change in Grassland production: An illustrative case study for the Swiss plateau. Regional Environmental Change, 11 (4), 935–949. doi: 10.1007/s10113-011-0234-9
Förster, H., and Lilliestam, J., 2010. Modeling thermoelectric power generation in view of climate change. Regional Environmental Change, 10 (4), 327–338. doi: 10.1007/s10113-009-0104-x
Forzieri, G.,, 2014. Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18 (1), 85–108. doi:10.5194/hess-18-85-2014 doi: 10.5194/hess-18-85-2014
Gellens, D., and Roulin, E., 1998. Streamflow response of Belgian catchment to IPCC climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology, 210 (1–4), 242–258. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00192-9
Giesecke, J., and Mosonyi, E., 2009. Wasserkraftanlagen, Planung, Bau und Betrieb. Heidelberg: Springer.
Görgen, K.,, 2010. Assessment of climate change impacts on discharge in the Rhine river basin: Results of the RheinBlick2050 Project, CHR report, I-23, 229 p., Lelystad, ISBN 978-90-70980-35-1.
Iglesias, A.,, 2007. Report AGRI-2006-G4-05: Adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector. Madrid: AEA Energy & Environment and Universidad de Politécnica de Madrid.
Knies, W., and Schierack, K., 2006. Elektrische Anlagentechnik – Kraftwerke, Netze, Schaltanlagen, Schutzeinrichtungen. München: Carl Hanser Verlag.
Koch, H., and Voegele, S., 2009. Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change. Ecological Economics, 68 (7), 2031–2039. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.02.015
Kugeler, K., and Phlippen, P.W., 1993. Energietechnik. Berlin: Springer.
Leander, R.,, 2008. Estimated changes in flood quantiles of the river Meuse from resampling of regional climate model output. Journal of Hydrology, 351 (3–4), 331–343. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.020
Marbaix, P., and van Ypersele, J.-P., 2004. Rapport: Impacts des changements climatiques en Belgique. Bruxelles: Greenpeace.
Middelkoop, H., and Kwadijk, J.C.J.K., 2001. Towards integrated assessment of the implications of global change for water management – The Rhine experience. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, 26 (7–8), 553–560. doi: 10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00049-1
Middelkoop, H.,, 2001. Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Climatic Change, 49 (1–2), 105–128. doi: 10.1023/A:1010784727448
Mideksa, T.K., and Kallbekken, S., 2010. The impact of climate change on the electricity market: a review. Energy Policy, 38 (7), 3579–3585. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.035
Olesen, J.E.,, 2007. Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Climatic Change, 81 (1 supplement), 123–143. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1
Oudin, L., Michel, C., and Anctil, F., 2005. Which potential evapotranspiration input for a rainfall-runoff model? Part 1 – Can rainfall-runoff models effectively handle detailed potential evapotranspiration inputs? Journal of Hydrology, 303 (1–4), 275–289. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.025
Richter, G.M., and Semenov, M.A., 2005. Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agricultural Systems, 84 (1), 77–97. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2004.06.011
Rötter, R.P.,, 2011. What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded °C? A model based assessment. European Journal of Agronomy, 35 (4), 205–214. doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2011.06.003
Semenov, M.A., 2007. Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 144 (1–2), 127–138. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.02.003
Smakhtin, V.U., 2001. Low flow hydrology: A review. Journal of Hydrology, 240 (3–4), 147–186. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00340-1
Sohier, C., Degré, A., and Dautrebande, S., 2009. From root zone modelling to regional forecasting of nitrate concentration in recharge flows – The case of the Walloon Region (Belgium). Journal of hydrology, 369 (4), 350–359. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.041
Strobl, T., and Zunic, F., 2006. Wasserbau, Aktuelle Grundlagen – Neue Entwicklungen. Berlin: Springer.
Theißing, M.,, 2010. Kraftwerke im Klimawandel – Auswirkungen anf die Erzeugung von Elektrizität. Kapfenberg: FH JOANNEUM Gesellschaft mbH.
Tubiello, F.N., Soussana, J.-F., and Howden, S.M., 2007. Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104 (50), 19686–19690. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701728104
Van Pelt, S.C.,, 2009. Discharge simulations performed with a hydrological model using bias corrected regional climate model input. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13 (12), 2387–2397. doi: 10.5194/hess-13-2387-2009
Wanek, M., Theibing, M., and Zisler, M., 2011. Kraftwerke in Klimawandel – Auswirkungen auf die Erzeugung von Elektrizität, 7. Wien: Internationale Energiewirtschaftstatung an der TU Wien.
White, J.W.,, 2011. Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production. Field Crops Research, 124 (3), 357–368. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2011.07.001
Williams, J.R., Jones, C.A., and Dyke, P.T., 1984. A modelling approach to determining the relationship between erosion and soil productivity. Transactions of the ASABE, 27 (1), 129–144. doi: 10.13031/2013.32748
World Meteorological Organization, 2008. Manual on low-flow: estimation and prediction, Operational Hydrology Report, 50, 136.
