Probabilistic Assessment of Lifetime of Low-Earth-Orbit Spacecraft: Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis

This paper is devoted to the probabilistic uncertainty quantification of orbital lifetime estimation of low-altitude satellites. Specifically, given a detailed characterization of the dominant sources of uncertainty, we map this input into a probabilistic characterization of the orbital lifetime through orbital propagation. Standard Monte Carlo propagation is first considered. The concept of drag correction is then introduced to facilitate the use of polynomial chaos expansions and to make uncertainty propagation computationally effective. Finally, the obtained probabilistic model is exploited to carry out stochastic sensitivity analyses, which in turn allow gaining insight into the impact uncertainties have on orbital lifetime. The proposed developments are illustrated using one CubeSat of the QB50 constellation.