Reference : Do global warming-induced circulation pattern changes affect temperature and precipit...
Scientific journals : Article
Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences : Earth sciences & physical geography
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/170663
Do global warming-induced circulation pattern changes affect temperature and precipitation over Europe during summer?
English
Belleflamme, Alexandre mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie >]
Fettweis, Xavier mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie >]
Erpicum, Michel mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie >]
2014
International Journal of Climatology
John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Yes (verified by ORBi)
International
0899-8418
1097-0088
[en] general circulation models ; sea level pressure ; Europe ; circulation type classification ; atmospheric circulation ; precipitation ; temperature
[en] Future climate change projections are not limited to a simple warming, but changes in precipitation and sea level pressure (SLP) are also projected. The SLP changes and the associated atmospheric circulation changes could directly mitigate or enhance potential projected changes in temperature and precipitation associated with rising temperatures. With the aim of analysing the projected circulation changes and their possible impacts on temperature and precipitation over Europe in summer [June–July–August (JJA)], we apply an automatic circulation type classification method, based on daily SLP, on general circulation model (GCM) outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database over the historical period (1951–2005) and for climate under two future scenarios (2006–2100). We focus on summer as it is the season when changes in temperature and precipitation have the highest impact on human health and agriculture. Over the historical observed reference period (1960–1999), our results show that most of the GCMs have significant biases over Europe when compared to reanalysis data sets, both for simulating the observed circulation types and their frequencies, as well as for reproducing the intraclass means of the studied variables. The future projections suggest a decrease of circulation types favouring a low centred over the British Isles for the benefit of more anticyclonic conditions. These circulation changes mitigate the projected precipitation increase over north-western Europe in summer, but they do not significantly affect the projected temperature increase and the precipitation decrease over the Mediterranean region and eastern Europe. However, the circulation changes and the associated precipitation changes are tarnished by a high uncertainty among the GCM projections.
Researchers
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/170663
10.1002/joc.4070
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4070/abstract
The online version of this article (doi:10.1002/joc.4070) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

File(s) associated to this reference

Fulltext file(s):

FileCommentaryVersionSizeAccess
Restricted access
10.1002-joc.4070.pdfPublisher postprint5.13 MBRequest copy
Open access
Belleflamme_et_al_accepted_version.pdfAuthor postprint2.57 MBView/Open

Bookmark and Share SFX Query

All documents in ORBi are protected by a user license.