[en] In some areas of Western Europe, red-backed shrike populations, following a strong decline in the third quarter of the 20th century, were re-established in recent decades. Variations in climate seem to have played a crucial part in this striking evolution by modulating the species breeding success. In order to test this hypothesis, the annual fluctuations of several of these populations in south-eastern Belgium were compared with the variations in a series of climatic factors. This study derives from a number of censuses, completed during the breeding period between 1979 and 2008, and the data from the weather stations closest to the populations studied. The modelling of climate influence on annual population fluctuations is based on a Partial Least Squares regression (PLS), following the classification of variables using a latent variable approach.
From 1980 to 2008, for the April-August period, the mean minimum temperature tended to rise. During these five months, rainfall intensity reached a minimum in the 1990’s and increased significantly thereafter. During the three last decades, rainfall intensity for June tended to decrease whereas that for August increased. The annual variations of these monthly averages were very high.
As for breeding population fluctuations, our results highlighted the significant role of various parameters related to minimum temperature and pluviometry during the breeding period. Spring and cold wet summer periods seem to have a significant negative impact on the rate of breeder recruitment.
These results suggest that the breeding success of red-backed shrike can benefit from global climate change due to the higher success rate of broods. This however applies provided that its habitat is preserved – in terms of quality and surface area – and that this warming does not generate overly high rainfall during a critical period of its breeding cycle. The importance of climatic factors in population fluctuations for this shrike provides opportunities for further investigation, particularly in studying the mechanisms that underlie these variations. [fr] Dans certaines régions d’Europe occidentale, les populations de Pie-grièche écorcheur, après avoir fortement régressé au cours du troisième quart du XXe siècle, se sont restaurées dans les dernières décennies. Les variations du climat auraient joué un rôle crucial dans cette remarquable évolution. Pour tester cette hypothèse, les fluctuations annuelles de plusieurs de ses populations du sud-est de Belgique ont été confrontées aux variations d’une série de facteurs climatiques. Cette étude est basée sur une série de recensements, réalisés en période de reproduction entre 1979 et 2008, et les données des stations météorologiques les plus proches des populations étudiées. La modélisation de l’influence du climat sur les fluctuations annuelles de population est fondée sur régression PLS, après une classification des variables autour de composantes latentes.
De 1980 à 2008, pour la période avril - août, la température minimale moyenne a eu tendance à s’élever. Durant ces cinq mois, la pluviosité a atteint un minimum dans les années 1990 pour augmenter de manière significative ensuite. Au cours de ces trois dernières décennies, la pluviosité de juin a eu tendance à diminuer, tandis que celle du mois d’août s’est accrue. Les variations annuelles de ces moyennes mensuelles ont été fort importantes.
Concernant les fluctuations d’effectifs des populations nicheuses, nos résultats ont mis en relief le rôle de différents paramètres liés à la température minimale, à la pluviométrie en période de reproduction. Les modèles basés sur les variables liées à la température minimale ont fourni les meilleurs ajustements entre le nombre de territoires de Pie-grièche écorcheur et les différentes variables explicatives.
Les printemps et les étés froids et humides semblent avoir un effet négatif majeur sur ses fluctuations d’effectifs. Ces résultats suggèrent que le développement des populations de Pie-grièche écorcheur puisse bénéficier du réchauffement climatique global, grâce à un meilleur succès des nichées. Mais, à condition que son habitat soit conservé - en qualité et en superficie - et que ce réchauffement ne s’accompagne pas d’une pluviosité trop élevée durant une période critique de son cycle de reproduction.
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