Groundwater flow modelling of the regional aquifer of the Pampa del Tamarugal, northern Chile

The Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) is an important source of groundwater in northern Chile. In this study, a groundwater flow model of this aquifer is developed and calibrated for the period 1983-2004. The model reproduces the observed flow-field and the water balance components reasonably well. Five scenarios are defined to evaluate the response to different pumping situations. These scenarios show that groundwater heads will continue to decrease with the present pumping discharge rates. To account for variations in the model results due to uncertainties in average recharge rates, randomly generated recharge realizations with different levels of uncertainty are simulated. Evaporation flow rates and groundwater flowing out of the modelled area seem unaffected by the recharge uncertainty, whereas the storage terms can vary considerably. For the most intensive pumping scenario under the generated random recharge rates, it is unlikely that the cumulative discharged volume from the aquifer, at the end of the simulation period, will be larger than 12% of the estimated groundwater reserve. Fluctuations in simulated groundwater heads due to uncertainties in the average recharge values are more noticeable in certain areas. These fluctuations could explain unusual behaviour in the observed groundwater heads in these areas.