New Rules, New Political Class? Analysis of the Impact of the Electoral Reforms in Belgium on the 2014 Elections and Aftermath

At the eve of the 2014 “mammoth elections”, the Belgian electoral systems are in question. According to the eight parties having contributed to the sixth State reform, it is time for a “political renewal”. The agreement of October 2011 plans that the Senate will cease to be a permanent institution composed of directly elected senators. The latter will be instead replaced by regional MPs with dual offices. The agreement also provides the (principle of) vertical simultaneity between the regional, federal and European elections while it bans dual candidature and forces candidates to seat where they get elected. In the meantime, the Walloon Parliament has adopted the “anti-cumul” Decree, which limits the accumulation of local and parliamentary offices. This research note proposes therefore a global reflexion on the potential consequences resulting from these electoral reforms on the Belgian political class. We proceed in two steps. First, we detail which reforms could affect the political class. Second, we seek to evaluate which impact the reforms may have on the political class. We argue that the electoral reforms adopted for the 6th State reforms but also by the Walloon Parliament confirm and furthermore enhance an already pre-existing trend towards a territorial distinctiveness between the federal and the regional levels. The 2014 elections might become one of the key points of crystallization when political actors become aware of the existence of two distinct political arenas. Overall, the article anticipates the reshaping of Belgian politics in the run-up to 2014 and aftermath.