environmental criminology; decision making; inference; serial offenders; geographical profiling; spatio-temporal analysis; criminologie environnementale; prise de décision; inférence; auteurs en série; profilage géographique; analyse spatio-temporelle
Résumé :
[en] This paper is dedicated to the identification of the constraints and factors enabling the computation of an effective geographic profile, with the specificity of focusing only on the elements that could be available during an investigation. It aimed at filling the gap between the inductive demarche of environmental criminology and the deductive, operational procedure followed by geographic profilers. It reviews successively the relationship between the premeditation, the seriousness of the facts, the nature of the offences and the spatio-temporal pattern of the crimes with the criteria required to build effective likelihood surfaces in geographic profiling. A decision tree is provided as a tool for evaluating the risks of an ineffective geographic profile with regard to the non-respect of the different conditions. [fr] Cet article est dédié à l’identification des contraintes et facteurs permettant la construction d’un profil géographique efficace, avec la particularité de s’intéresser aux seuls éléments disponibles durant une enquête criminelle. L’article cherche à combler le vide méthodologique entre la démarche inductive de la criminologie environnementale et la procédure déductive et opérationnelle suivie par les profileurs géographiques. Il examine successivement la relation entre la préméditation, la gravité des faits, la nature de l'infraction et la configuration spatio-temporelle des crimes avec les critères nécessaires à la construction de surfaces de vraisemblance efficaces dans le profilage géographique. En synthèse, un arbre de décision permet d’évaluer les risques d’un profile erroné en fonction du non-respect des différentes conditions
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