Transition prediction for oblique breakdown in supersonic boundary layers with uncertain disturbance spectrum

Laminar to turbulent transition in supersonic boundary layer is numerically investigated
by combining linear stability theory and Uncertainty Quanti cation. Linear stability theory
is used to determine the N􀀀factor for the eN transition prediction method for a Mach 6
at
plate test case. Transition onset location is determined by using the N􀀀factor experimen-
tally obtained in the facility where the test was carried out. Uncertainty quanti cation is
used to compute the probability of transition within the intermittency region downstream
of the transition onset. The stochastic approach allows to model the transition region as
in the experimental cases since a gradual passage from the laminar to the turbulent
ow is
obtained. The probability of transition resembles the shape of the skin friction or the heat

ux distribution generally observed in the experiments within the transition region. Here
we focus on the transition zone rather than on the onset location.