[en] Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2◦C temperature rise. In the event of a 4◦C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also—and above all—the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4◦C+ world would require.
Disciplines :
Political science, public administration & international relations
Author, co-author :
Gemenne, François ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Institut des sciences humaines et sociales > Centre d'études de l'ethnicité et des migrations (CEDEM)
Language :
English
Title :
Climate-induced population displacements in a 4° C+ world
Publication date :
2011
Journal title :
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences
ISSN :
0080-4614
Special issue title :
Theme Issue ‘Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications’
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