[en] In this paper, different modeling philosophies are explored in order to explain and forecast
daily traffic counts. The main objectives of this study are the analysis of the impact of
holidays on daily traffic, and the forecasting of future traffic counts. Data coming from single
inductive loop detectors, collected in 2003, 2004 and 2005, were used for the analysis. The
different models that were investigated showed that the variation in daily traffic counts could
be explained by weekly cycles. The Box-Tiao modeling approach was applied to quantify the
effect of holidays on daily traffic. The results showed that traffic counts were significantly
lower for holiday periods. When the different modeling techniques were compared with
respect to forecasting with a large forecast horizon, Box-Tiao modeling clearly outperformed
the other modeling strategies. Simultaneous modeling of both the underlying reasons of
travel, and revealed traffic patterns, certainly is a challenge for further research.
Research Center/Unit :
Lepur : Centre de Recherche sur la Ville, le Territoire et le Milieu rural - ULiège LEMA - Local Environment Management and Analysis
Disciplines :
Civil engineering Special economic topics (health, labor, transportation...)
