Effect of self-reference and valence on belief in the occurrence of future events.

Episodic future thinking is our ability to mentally simulate future events. These simulations vary in the extent to which we believe imagined events will actually happen to us—referred to as belief in future occurrence. Belief in future occurrence is a key component of episodic future thinking, allowing us to judge which event may, or may not, be part of our personal future. Recent research has shed light on the "self-enhancement" function of future thinking. Indeed, future simulations tend to be more vivid and important when they are positive and involve the self. The aim of this study was to determine whether this self-enhancement function affects our judgement of future occurrence. To do so, we examined the influence of valence and self-reference on beliefs in imagined future events. Participants imagined a series of future events involving themselves or an acquaintance and varying in their valence (positive or negative). Then, they rated these events on belief in future occurrence and the subjective quality of the representation. The results showed that positive events were associated with higher belief in occurrence than negative events, and that events involving the self were associated with higher belief than events involving an acquaintance. However, there was no interaction between valence and reference. Therefore, although both the valence and the agent of an imagined event influence belief in future occurrence, there is no evidence for a self-enhancement effect on this dimension of episodic future thinking.