Impact of climate change on the distribution and diversity of vegetation species important for pollination

Pollination is a key ecosystem service vital to the preservation of wild plant communities
and to sustain the yield of some agricultural crops. However, pollinators are rapidly
declining in Europe, primarily as a result of human activity and climate change. Therefore,
there is growing concern that observed declines in insect pollinators may impact on
production and revenues from pollinator-dependent crops. In the forest, the presence of
pollinators depends strongly on the openness of the canopy and the presence of wild
plants that attract pollinators. The distribution of such plants is, therefore, crucial for
estimating the pollinator presence. In general, however, there is incomplete knowledge
of where those wild plants occur and how well they grow. To overcome this issue, we
developed a species distribution model to predict the potential presence of important
plant species for pollinators under present and future climatic conditions. The result of
the distribution model is then re ned using the dynamic vegetation model CARAIB. By
combining the results of the distribution model and CARAIB, we can determine where the
plants are located and calculate their net primary productivities. The model projection for
the end of the century highlights the large uncertainties in the future evolution of the
pollinated plant species in the forest.