Reference : Simulating seed dispersal to reproduce past dynamics and distribution of African trop...
Scientific congresses and symposiums : Poster
Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences : Earth sciences & physical geography
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/227220
Simulating seed dispersal to reproduce past dynamics and distribution of African tropical trees.
English
Dury, Marie mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
Hardy, Olivier []
Migliore, Jérémy []
Henrot, Alexandra-Jane mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
Trolliet, Franck mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
Hambuckers, Alain mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale >]
Lézine, Anne-Marie []
Singarayer, Joy []
François, Louis mailto [Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques >]
28-Mar-2018
No
No
International
European Conference of Tropical Ecology ”Challenges in tropical ecology and conservation - global perspectives”
du 26 mars au 29 mars 2018
Society for Tropical Ecology (gtö)
Paris
France
[en] Species dispersal ; Past dynamics ; Tropical Africa ; Dynamic vegetation modelling
[en] Climate change and human pressure threaten species richness of African tropical forests. Understanding how the past climate changes have shaped the current distribution and composition of African rainforests can certainly help to the ecosystem conservation in the future. In the framework of the multi-disciplinary AFRIFORD project (Genetic and palaeoecological signatures of African rainforest dynamics: pre-adapted to change?, http://www.ulb.ac.be/facs/sciences/afriford/), this kind of questions is addressed. The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model is applied at the level of representative African tropical tree species to reconstruct their past and present distributions in equatorial Africa. To reproduce fully population dynamics, the results of the vegetation model are combined with a seed dispersal model.
At first, we simulate with the CARAIB DVM the changes over time in the potential distribution of the tree species studied in AFRIFORD taking competition between species into account. From Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present time, the vegetation model is forced with the 1-kyr snapshot outputs of the HadCM3 climate model, statistically downscaled at a spatial resolution of 0.5° and bias-corrected. The calculated distributions are essentially in equilibrium with climate, except for small delay times associated with biomass growth. These distributions are also compared directly with the potential (no dispersal limitation either) distributions obtained from species distribution modelling (MaxENT) for the same set of tree species and with the same climate forcing. Then, to simulate tree species under limitation by both climate and seed dispersal, the dispersal module is run transiently on a sub-grid at 100 m resolution to reproduce species dynamics over the 20,000 years from their LGM refugia (simulated by the DVM). The dispersal capacities are dependent on species productivity and survival simulated by the DVM for each1-kyr snapshot. The modelled dispersal distances are compared to genetic-based dispersal distances estimated in the project.
BELSPO - SPP Politique scientifique - Service Public Fédéral de Programmation Politique scientifique
AFRIFORD (Genetic and paleoecological signature of African rainforest dynamics: pre-adapted to change?)
Researchers ; Professionals ; Students
http://hdl.handle.net/2268/227220

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