[en] 2D dynamic modelling of seismic slope stability is applied to a landslide-prone area in Central Asia, the Mailuu-Suu Valley, situated in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The calculations are made with models constructed from over 30 profiles located in the target area, presenting different geological, tectonic and morphological settings. One part of the profiles were selected within landslide zones, the other part was selected in stable areas. Many of the landslides are complex slope failures involving falls, rotational sliding and/or planar sliding and flows. These input data were extracted from a 3D structural geological model built with the GOCAD software. Geophysical and geomechanical parameters were defined on the basis of results obtained by multiple surveys performed in the area over the past 15 years. These include geophysical investigation, seismological experiments and ambient noise measurements.
Dynamic modelling of slope stability is performed with the UDEC version 4.01 software that is able to compute deformation of discrete elements. Inside these elements both elasto-plastic and purely elastic materials (similar to rigid blocks) were tested. Various parameter variations were tested to assess their influence on the final outputs. For a few models groundwater flow is included. The total parametric study involved more than 100 different models (about 800 computation hours).
