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Abstract :
[en] Pollen and macro-fossil data collected from various localities in Europe provide the opportunity to reconstruct the speed and the routes of the post-glacial spread of European tree species. Moving from a limited number of refugia at the end of the glacial period, tree species have progressively re-colonized the continent through the Holocene at seemingly species-specific migration rates. However, the relative roles of climatic fluctuations, dispersal capacities of individual species, and inter-specific competition in controlling these rates remains controversial. Here, we investigate these different aspects with two dynamic vegetation models (DVM), LPJ-GUESS and CARAIB. Transient runs of both models were performed over the Holocene, using HadCM3 GCM-reconstructed climate. Large-scale species migration at 0.5°x0.5° is represented in these models using migration rates derived from a small-scale cellular automaton, CATS. Individual tree species migration rates were pre-calculated with CATS every 1000 years over each grid cell used by the DVMs in the climatic conditions reconstructed by the GCM. In the DVMs, these migration speeds were influenced by the response to competition from other species. The DVMs were used to study the migration of one species, from its 10 kyr BP refugia, within a landscape defined by a set of other species for which no dispersal limitations are assumed. Here, we illustrate the results obtained for three wind-dispersed tree species: Abies alba, Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and compare them to their past distributions reconstructed from pollen and macro-fossil data.
