Publications of Ingrid Jacquemin
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See detailCARAIB USER'S GUIDE
Minet, Julien ULiege; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULiege; François, Louis ULiege

Learning material (2013)

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See detailDrought-related vulnerability and risk assessment of groundwater resources under temperate conditions
Verbeiren, Boud; Huysmans, Marijke; Tychon, Bernard ULiege et al

Conference (2013, September)

Drought hazards are usually associated with (semi-)arid regions. Due to the assumed insignificance of drought hazards under temperate conditions this field remains poorly studied. This study aims at ... [more ▼]

Drought hazards are usually associated with (semi-)arid regions. Due to the assumed insignificance of drought hazards under temperate conditions this field remains poorly studied. This study aims at filling this gap by: (1) Increasing understanding of influencing factors determining drought in a temperate context; (2) Developing a methodology and quantitative tools aimed at planning and decision support with respect to groundwater management. In the first place drought is a phenomenon caused by deficient precipitation for a large area and significant duration and as such it is mainly a meteorological-related hazard. In case the temporary water deficiency affects groundwater bodies, the term groundwater drought is used. Groundwater droughts develop slowly but can have considerable socio-economic and environmental consequences. Groundwater drought is a complex phenomenon. Three main variables are important: groundwater recharge, groundwater level and groundwater discharge. Groundwater recharge is important as it is the source (inflow) of all groundwater. The groundwater table gives an indication of the storage, while groundwater discharge represents the outflow from the groundwater system. Next to natural meteorological variations also human induced factors play a role. In the Belgian context the main influencing factors determining the inflow and potentially resulting in a recharge deficit and an overall deterioration of groundwater resources are climate and land use/land cover. Groundwater demand for human activities has a direct effect on groundwater storage (level). The combined effect of these factors makes that some groundwater bodies are under pressure. In these groundwater bodies the outflow exceeds the inflow generating a reduction in storage and hence an unsustainable situation. A thorough knowledge of all three influencing factors and their interaction or combined effect is essential for a reliable estimate of the groundwater budget and a sustainable management. Hence, there is a need for an improved understanding of groundwater drought and the human-induced factors influencing the groundwater balance. This should form the basis for an integrated approach which allows tackling these negative effects and safeguarding sustainability of groundwater resources. [less ▲]

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See detailTowards a comprehensive framework for the assessment of groundwater drought in temperate regions
Tsakiris, Georges; Nalbantis, Ioannis; Vangelis, Harris et al

Conference (2013, June)

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See detailPaleoproductivity during the middle Miocene carbon isotope events: A data-model approach
Diester-Haass, Liselotte; Billups, Katharina; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULiege et al

in Paleoceanography (2013), 28

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic ... [more ▼]

To what extent are individual middle Miocene eccentricity-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope maxima (the so-called CM events) related to changes in marine export productivity? Here we use benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates from three sites in the Pacific and Southern Oceans and a geochemical box model to assess relationships between benthic foraminiferal δ13C records, export productivity, and the global carbon cycle. Results from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 588 and Ocean Drilling Program Site 747 show a distinct productivity maximum during CM 6 at 13.8 Ma, the time of major expansion of ice on Antarctica. Productivity maxima during other CM events are only recorded at high-latitude Site 747. A set of numerical experiments tests whether changes in foraminiferal δ13C records (CM events) and export productivity can be simulated solely by sea level fluctuations and the associated changes in global weathering-deposition cycles, by sea level fluctuations plus global climatic cooling, and by sea level fluctuations plus invigorated ocean circulation. Consistent with data, the periodic forcing of sea level and albedo (and associated weathering cycles) produces δ13C variations of the correct temporal spacing, albeit with a reduced amplitude. A productivity response of the correct magnitude is achieved by enhancing ocean circulation during cold periods. We suggest that the pacing of middle Miocene δ13C fluctuations is associated with cyclical sea level variations. The amplitude, however, is muted perhaps due to the competing effects of a time-lagged response to sea level lowstands but an immediate response to invigorated ocean circulation during cold phases. [less ▲]

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See detailValuation of terrestrial ecosystem services in a multifunctional peri-urban space - "Votes"
Fontaine, CM; De Vreese, R; Jacquemin, Ingrid ULiege et al

Report (2013)

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See detailModelling the risk of ecosystem disruption in Europe with a dynamic vegetation model
Dury, Marie ULiege; Hambuckers, Alain ULiege; Warnant, Pierre et al

Conference (2012, April)

What will be the European ecosystem responses to future climate? With unprecedented speed and extent, the projected climate change might lead to a disruption of terrestrial plants functioning in many ... [more ▼]

What will be the European ecosystem responses to future climate? With unprecedented speed and extent, the projected climate change might lead to a disruption of terrestrial plants functioning in many regions. In the framework of the EcoChange project, transient projections over the 1901-2100 period have been performed with a process-based dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB DVM (Dury et al., 2011, iForest 4: 82, 99). The vegetation model was driven by the outputs of four climate models under the SRES A1B scenario: the ARPEGE/Climate model and three regional climate models (KNMI-RACMO2 , DMI-HIRHAM5 and HC-HadRM3Q0 RCMs) from the European Union project ENSEMBLES. DVMs are appropriate tools to apprehend potential climate change impacts on ecosystems and identify threatened regions over Europe. CARAIB outputs (soil moisture, runoff, net primary productivity, fire, etc.) were used to characterize the ecosystem evolution. To assess consequences on biodiversity, the evolution of 100 natural common European species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 41 trees) has been studied year-to-year over the 1901-2100 period. Under the combined effects of projected changes particularly in temperature and precipitations, CARAIB simulates important reductions in the annual soil water content. The species productivities vary strongly from year to year reaching during the driest years values much lower than present-day average productivity. According to CARAIB, a lot of species might go beyond their water tolerance very frequently, particularly after 2050, due to more intense summer droughts. In the northern part of Europe and in the Alps, with reduced temperature variability and positive soil water anomalies, NPP variability tends to decrease. Regions with more severe droughts might also be affected by an increase of the frequency and intensity of wildfires. With this background, the species distributions might be strongly modified. 15% of tree species and 30% of herb and shrub species (respectively 30% and 60% if the CO2 fertilization effect on species is not taken into account) might experience a loss of 30% or more of their current distribution. Proportions of new species appearance at the end of the century were also studied. Southern Europe might suffer important species extinction while the more suitable climate conditions in northern Europe might lead to a gain in species diversity. [less ▲]

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See detailBiophysical valuation of ecosystem services in the VOTES project: use of a dynamic vegetation model
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULiege; François, Louis ULiege; Fontaine, Corentin M. et al

Conference (2011, October 04)

The VOTES project (Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space) aims to develop a framework to evaluate ecosystem services from a social, economic and environmental ... [more ▼]

The VOTES project (Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space) aims to develop a framework to evaluate ecosystem services from a social, economic and environmental point of view, where local stakeholders and end-users have a central role in the valuation process, as they are the direct beneficiaries of the provision of services. Within this project, the framework is applied to a case study in central Belgium, known for its strong peri-urban character, due to the proximity to Brussels. To the end, this quantitative tool designed for a sustainable landscape management is also designed for the evaluation and the monitoring of ecosystem services for policy makers. The originality is that this framework will provide an integrated valuation of ecosystem services in a spatially and temporally explicit way, based on different steps in which we find biophysical valuation and landscape modelling: the valuation of the biophysical environment is an essential component of the VOTES framework. To carry through this biophysical valuation, we use the CARAIB model (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere), a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) adapted for the valuation of the ecosystem services. This model is combined with another spatial model, an agent-based model (ABM), used to project land use change into the future. Initially, CARAIB was designed to describe (non-managed) natural ecosystems dynamics over large spatial domains and at coarse resolution. In consequence, the model had to be adapted to the VOTES smaller scale case study (including a higher resolution) but, mainly, the model had to be modified to quantify key ecosystem services, e.g., through the addition of a module dedicated to (manage) crops. This new version of the model thus provides direct outputs on the biophysical values of ecosystem services, e.g., productivity (food/fodder, wood production, etc) or carbon storage, which leads to a mapping of these ecosystem services not only for the present, but also for the future until 2050. Indeed, the coupled DVM-ABM is used to construct future (dynamic) scenarios that include the major driving forces of the system (e.g., global socio-economic context, climate change, urbanization pressure, etc) together with adapted management. The computed scenarios will provide the changes in the biophysical system consistent with the socio-economic evolution, including changes in ecosystem structure and function. This will allow an estimate of a change in the provision of ecosystem service through time, so that the sustainability of ecosystem services under the studied scenarios can be assessed. [less ▲]

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See detailParticipatory valuation and modelling of ecosystem services under land use change
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULiege; Fontaine, Corentin M.; De Vreese, Rik et al

Poster (2011, April 08)

Ecosystem service (ES) is a conceptual linkage between biodiversity and human well-being. In a context of increased urbanization combined with the effects of climate change, the level of biodiversity is ... [more ▼]

Ecosystem service (ES) is a conceptual linkage between biodiversity and human well-being. In a context of increased urbanization combined with the effects of climate change, the level of biodiversity is expected to be reduced, and from the point of view of the ES, the loss of biodiversity is not only an environmental problem for itself, but is also a major issue for society’s sustainable development. Thus, it is necessary to identify adaptations of ecosystem use and management that will minimize the biodiversity loss while maintaining the production of ES for the society. To achieve this goal, ES must be valuated, but this valuation needs to consider a broad set of goals that include ecological sustainability and social fairness, along with the traditional economic goal of efficiency. Participatory approaches should be used in all ES valuation steps. Indeed, local stakeholders and end-users have a central role in the valuation process, as they are the direct beneficiaries of the provision of services. Moreover, biodiversity management must be focused onto human needs to deliver more integrated policy and management at a landscape-scale and be more firmly directed towards human well-being. Here, we present the framework developed within the VOTES (Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space) project for integrating all these factors in a quantitative tool designed for a sustainable landscape management, as well as for the evaluation and the monitoring of ES for policy designers. The originality is that this framework will provide an integrated valuation of ES in a spatially and temporally explicit way, based on the following steps: social valuation, biophysical valuation, economic valuation, landscape modelling & dynamics and finally integration of ecosystem service indicators. The biophysical assessment and landscape modelling steps rest on the combined use of two spatial models: a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB DVM) and an agent-based model (ABM). These models will be used to construct future (dynamic) scenarios that include the major driving forces of the system (e.g., global socio-economic context, urbanization pressure, climate change, etc) together with adapted management. The computed scenarios will provide the changes in the biophysical system consistent with the socio-economic evolution, including changes in land use, crop productivity, carbon sequestration, or more generally ecosystem structure and function. This will allow an estimate of a change in the provision of ES through time, so that the sustainability of ES under the studied scenarios can be assessed. The framework is meant to be applicable to any given landscape, but here it is applied to a case study area in central Belgium, known for its strong periurban character, due to the proximity to Brussels. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling the Middle Miocene fluctuations in ocean biological productivity, ocean carbon isotopic composition and atmospheric CO2 level
Jacquemin, Ingrid ULiege; François, Louis ULiege; Diester-Haass, Liselotte et al

Conference (2011, April 05)

The Middle Miocene (17.5-13.5 Ma) is characterized by high frequency fluctuations in the seawater delta13C record with six distinct delta13C maxima linked to Earth orbital cycles (mainly the 400 kyr ... [more ▼]

The Middle Miocene (17.5-13.5 Ma) is characterized by high frequency fluctuations in the seawater delta13C record with six distinct delta13C maxima linked to Earth orbital cycles (mainly the 400 kyr eccentricity cycle). These fluctuations are negatively correlated with the delta18O variations and, on the other hand, marine data show that the ocean productivity tends to be higher during warmer periods. However, on the long term, these three indicators show a different relationship: the productivity does not show any major trend, while a positive excursion of the delta13C is observed (the so-called Monterey event) and is accompanied by a warming, i.e., a decrease in the delta18O. The question of the long-term trend has already been addressed in a previous study (Diester-Haass et al., Paleoceanography, 24, PA1209, 2008), where the positive excursion in delta13C was explained by the storage in sediments of organic carbon from continental origin. In the current study we hypothesize that the short-term (400 kyr cycle) fluctuations of the marine delta13C are mainly linked to sea level and marine productivity changes and not to changes in the terrestrial environment, explaining the different relationship between the isotopic indicators for this shorter as compared to the longer timescale. We test this hypothesis by using a global geochemical box model representing the carbon, alkalinity, phosphorus and oxygen cycles and coupled to an energy balance climate model. The model is forced with sea level fluctuations associated with the observed variations of ocean delta18O. We first evaluate the changes in continental weathering associated with these sea level fluctuations and the related climate change. The model shows that these changes in weathering cannot explain the observed amplitude of marine productivity and ocean delta13C variations over the 400 kyr eccentricity cycle. We then test the assumption that these high frequency delta13C variations were the result of a change in the turnover rate of the oceans, with higher upwelling rates and higher productivity during warmer periods. Results of model sensitivity tests indicate that this hypothesis is plausible, since it leads to approximately correct amplitudes and phases of the oceanic productivity and delta13C signals. Thus, the following picture emerges that, in the Middle Miocene, the short-term fluctuations in oceanic delta13C are driven by ocean circulation and productivity changes, while the trends at longer timescales are linked to a change in the burial rate of continental organic carbon. From this picture, the model is able to provide a geochemical history of the Middle Miocene ocean-atmosphere system consistent with the marine delta13C record. In this reconstructed history, the atmospheric CO2 level only shows small variations, with a slight decrease from the Lower Miocene (about 310 ppmv at 19 Ma) to the Middle Miocene (280 ppmv at 16 Ma) followed by a small increase thereafter (310 to 320 ppmv near 12 Ma). This history is relatively consistent with the marine 13C isotopic proxies for atmospheric CO2. [less ▲]

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See detailPaleoproductivity and carbon cycling during the Middle Miocene Monterey Excursion
Billups, Katarina; Diester-Haass, Liselotte; Emeis, Kay-Christian et al

Poster (2010, May 06)

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