References of "Zanatta, Florian"
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See detailBryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities
Zanatta, Florian ULiege; Engler, Robin; Collart, Flavien ULiege et al

in Nature Communications (2020), 11

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed ... [more ▼]

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades. [less ▲]

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See detailNo borders during the post-glacial assembly of European bryophytes
Ledent, Alice ULiege; Désamoré, Aurélie; Laenen, Benjamin et al

in Ecology Letters (2019), 22(6), 973-986

Climatic fluctuations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a profound influence on biodiversity patterns, but their impact on bryophytes, the second most diverse group of land plants, has been ... [more ▼]

Climatic fluctuations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a profound influence on biodiversity patterns, but their impact on bryophytes, the second most diverse group of land plants, has been poorly documented. Approximate Bayesian computations based on coalescent simulations showed that the post-glacial assembly of European bryophytes involves a complex his- tory from multiple sources. The contribution of allochthonous migrants was 95–100% of expand- ing populations in about half of the 15 investigated species, which is consistent with the globally balanced genetic diversities and extremely low divergence observed among biogeographical regions. Such a substantial contribution of allochthonous migrants in the post-glacial assembly of Europe is unparalleled in other plants and animals. The limited role of northern micro-refugia, 2 which was unexpected based on bryophyte life-history traits, and of southern refugia, is consistent with recent palaeontological evidence that LGM climates in Eurasia were much colder and drier than what palaeoclimatic models predict. [less ▲]

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See detailCombining ecological niche models and dispersal simulations to predict bryophytes dynamic response to climate changes
Zanatta, Florian ULiege

Doctoral thesis (2018)

Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010, with larger absolute increases between 2000 and 2010 ... [more ▼]

Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010, with larger absolute increases between 2000 and 2010. Indeed, the period from 1983 to 2012 has been identified as the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, climate changes have been identified as one of the major biodiversity threats, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been the most widely used tool to assess the impact of future climate changes on biodiversity patterns, using spatial information to infer species ecological niches from climatic conditions that prevail today across the distribution range occupied by the species. One of the main assumptions of these models is, however, that species live at equilibrium with their environment, as if they had no dispersal limitations. Such an assumption is critical if we aim at projecting these modeled ecological niches under future climatic conditions. The main goal of the present thesis was to develop an integrative, spatially explicit model to make predictions of range shifts in wind-dispersed organisms in a context of climate changes. More precisely, we calibrated a Wald analytical long distance dispersal model with species intrinsic biomechanical features (i.e., the settling velocity of diaspores and their release height) and environmental variables (i.e., canopy height, wind intensity and turbulence), through direct observations of diaspore deposition patterns. We then integrated this dispersal model combined with habitat suitability maps into a modified version of MigClim’s cellular automaton that allows migration simulation of species across the landscape, while implementing environmental change scenarios. Initially, MigClim assumed an isotropic colonization probability around a source population with a single constant dispersal kernel across the landscape. This was challenging its use for wind-dispersed organisms because (i) wind movements are directional and (ii) wind velocity varies widely from an area to another across the landscape. We therefore developed this method to (i) allow the integration of asymmetrical dispersal depending on wind parameters and (ii) render the dispersal kernel spatially-explicit by sampling pixel-specific wind speed and canopy structure along the migration simulations. We applied this method to predict how climate changes will impact future distribution ranges in bryophytes, which are particularly sensitive to climatic variations due to their poïkilohydry. We started by measuring bryophytes spores settling velocities using a high-speed camera experiment and produced a predictive model as a function of spore size. The non-sphericity and particular ornamentation patterns of the outer spore wall caused some mismatch between observed and predicted settling velocities, raising questions on how these striking variations in shape and texture affect their dispersal capacity. However, we globally identified a significant relationship between spore9 settling velocity and size. Based on these spore fall speed estimates and a set of SDM derived maps of habitats suitability at present time and in predicted 2050 climatic conditions in Europe, we ran a sensitivity analysis on a modified version of MigClim to test the impact of differences in spores release height and horizontal mean wind speed. Variation in predicted colonization success was significantly driven by release height but not by differences in horizontal mean wind speed, suggesting that, in small-sized wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes, there is a strong evolutionary pressure for elevating the sporophyte above ground. The implementation of the combined model on three species of contrasted distribution across Europe reveals much higher extinction than colonization rates, even for the most optimistic climatic scenarios and the most successful wind dispersal kernels. Although additional models need to be produced to forecast climate changes impacts on a wide range of bryophyte species, our preliminary results point to a much more severe impact of climate warming for bryophytes as compared to vascular plants. This highlights the primary role of bryophytes as indicators of climate changes. [less ▲]

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See detailIsland biogeography in the context of climate change
Ledent, Alice ULiege; Zanatta, Florian ULiege

Scientific conference (2017, February 01)

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See detailMeasuring spore settling velocity for an improved assessment of dispersal rates in mosses
Zanatta, Florian ULiege; Vanderpoorten, Alain ULiege; Patiño, Jairo et al

in Annals of Botany (2016)

The settling velocity of diaspores is a key parameter for the measurement of dispersal ability in wind-dispersed plants and one of the most relevant parameters in explicit dispersal models, but remains ... [more ▼]

The settling velocity of diaspores is a key parameter for the measurement of dispersal ability in wind-dispersed plants and one of the most relevant parameters in explicit dispersal models, but remains largely undocumented in bryophytes. The settling velocities of moss spores were measured and it was determined whether settling velocities can be derived from spore diameter using Stokes’ Law or if specific traits of spore ornamentation cause departures from theoretical expectations. [less ▲]

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See detailHigh migration rates shape the postglacial history of amphi-Atlantic bryophytes
Désamoré, Aurélie; Patino, Jairo; Mardulyn, Patrick et al

in Molecular Ecology (2016), 22

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See detailClimate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora
Patino, J.; Mateo, R.G.; Zanatta, Florian ULiege et al

in Scientific Reports (2016), 6

Detailed reference viewed: 42 (3 ULiège)