References of "Vandenbulcke, Luc"
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See detailUpscaling or a local model in a regional-scale model
Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Barth, Alexander ULiege

in Ocean Science (2019), 15(2), 291-305

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See detail3.6 Decline of the Black Sea oxygen inventory. In: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 2
Capet, Arthur ULiege; Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Veselka, Marinova et al

in Journal of Operational Oceanography (2018), 11(sup1),

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See detailGlobal Warming altered the Black Sea ventilation regime
Capet, Arthur ULiege; Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Grégoire, Marilaure ULiege

Conference (2018, April)

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See detailEvolution of the Black Sea ventilation regime during the last decades
Capet, Arthur ULiege; Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Grégoire, Marilaure ULiege

in Ocean Deoxygenation : Drivers and Consequences, Past, Present, Future, Kiel, Sept 2018 (2018)

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See detailCorrection of inertial oscillations by assimilation of HFradar data in a model of the Ligurian Sea
Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Barth, Alexander ULiege; Beckers, Jean-Marie ULiege

in Ocean Dynamics (2016)

This article aims at analyzing if high-frequency radar observations of surface currents allow to improve model forecasts in the Ligurian Sea, where inertial oscillations are a dominant feature. An ... [more ▼]

This article aims at analyzing if high-frequency radar observations of surface currents allow to improve model forecasts in the Ligurian Sea, where inertial oscillations are a dominant feature. An ensemble of ROMS models covering the Ligurian Sea, and nested in the Mediterranean Forecasting System, is coupled with two WERA high-frequency radars. A sensitivity study allows to determine optimal parameters for the ensemble filter. By assimilating observations in a single point, the obtained correction shows that the forecast error covariance matrix represents the inertial oscillations, as well as large- and meso-scale processes. Furthermore, it is shown that the velocity observations can correct the phase and amplitude of the inertial oscillations. Observations are shown to have a strong effect during approximately half a day, which confirms the importance of using a high temporal observation frequency. In general, data assimilation of HF radar observations leads to a skill score of about 30 % for the forecasts of surface velocity. [less ▲]

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See detailPotential for Composite Analysis in the Black Sea
Capet, Arthur ULiege; Mason, Evan; Troupin, Charles et al

Conference (2016, October)

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See detailOperational forecasting of the Black sea: merging model simulations and satellite products
Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Capet, Arthur ULiege; Ivanov, Evgeny ULiege et al

Scientific conference (2016, September 29)

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See detailDINEOF analyses of Sea Surface Temperature data in the Black Sea
Alvera Azcarate, Aida ULiege; Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Barth, Alexander ULiege et al

Scientific conference (2016, September 29)

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See detailA stochastic operational forecasting system of the Black Sea: Technique and validation
Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Barth, Alexander ULiege

in Ocean Modelling (2015), 93

In this article, we present the latest version of an ensemble forecasting system of the hydrodynamics of the Black Sea, based on the GHER model. The system includes the Weakly Constrained Ensembles ... [more ▼]

In this article, we present the latest version of an ensemble forecasting system of the hydrodynamics of the Black Sea, based on the GHER model. The system includes the Weakly Constrained Ensembles algorithm to generate random, but physically balanced perturbations to initialize members of the ensemble. On top of initial conditions, the ensemble accounts also for uncertainty on the atmospheric forcing fields, and on some scalar parameters such as river flows or model diffusion coefficients. The forecasting system also includes the Ocean Assimilation Kit, a sequential data assimilation package implementing the SEEK and Ensemble Kalman filters. A novel aspect of the forecasting system is that not only our best estimate of the future ocean state is provided, but also the associated error estimated from the ensemble of models. The primary goal of this paper is to quantitatively show that the ensemble variability is a good estimation of the model error, regardless of the magnitude of the forecast errors themselves. In order for this estimation to be meaningful, the model itself should also be well validated. Therefore, we describe the model validation against general circulation patterns. Some particular aspects critical for the Black Sea circulation are validated as well: the mixed layer depth and the shelfopen sea exchanges. The model forecasts are also compared with observed sea surface temperature, and errors are compared to those of another operational model as well. [less ▲]

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See detailThermocline characterisation in the Cariaco basin: A modelling study of the thermocline annual variation and its relation with winds and chlorophyll-a concentration
Alvera Azcarate, Aïda ULiege; Barth, Alexander ULiege; Weisberg, Robert H. et al

in Continental Shelf Research (2011), 31(1), 73-84

The spatial and temporal evolution of the thermocline depth and width of the Cariaco basin (Venezuela) is analysed by means of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The thermocline depth and width are ... [more ▼]

The spatial and temporal evolution of the thermocline depth and width of the Cariaco basin (Venezuela) is analysed by means of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The thermocline depth and width are determined through the fitting of model temperature profiles to a sigmoid function. The use of whole profiles for the fitting allows for a robust estimation of the thermocline characteristics, mainly width and depth. The fitting method is compared to the maximum gradient approach, and it is shown that, under some circumstances, the method presented in this work leads to a better characterization of the thermocline. After assessing, through comparison with independent {\it in situ} data, the model capabilities to reproduce the Cariaco basin thermocline, the seasonal variability of this variable is analysed, and the relationship between the annual cycle of the thermocline depth, the wind field and the distribution of chlorophyll-a concentration in the basin is studied. The interior of the basin reacts to easterly winds intensification with a rising of the thermocline, resulting in a coastal upwelling response, with the consequent increase in chlorophyll-a concentration. Outside the Cariaco basin, where an open-ocean, oligothrophic regime predominates, wind intensification increases mixing of the surface layers and induces therefore a deepening of the thermocline. The seasonal cycle of the thermocline variability in the Cariaco basin is therefore related to changes in the wind field. At shorter time scales (i.e. days), it is shown that other processes, such as the influence of the meandering Caribbean Current, can also influence the thermocline variability. The model thermocline depth is shown to be in good agreement with the two main ventilation events that took place in the basin during the period of the simulation. [less ▲]

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See detailEnhanced ocean temperature forecast skills through 3-D super-ensemble multi-model fusion
Lenartz, Fabian ULiege; Mourre, B.; Barth, Alexander ULiege et al

in Geophysical Research Letters (2010), 37(L19606),

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See detailCariaco basin dynamics: Study of the thermocline depth variability and its relation with open ocean conditions
Alvera Azcarate, Aïda ULiege; Barth, Alexander ULiege; Weisberg, Robert H. et al

Conference (2010, August 11)

The Cariaco basin (Venezuela) is a semi-enclosed trench located along the coast of Venezuela, with maximum depths of about 1400 m. It is connected to the open ocean by two shallow passages of less than ... [more ▼]

The Cariaco basin (Venezuela) is a semi-enclosed trench located along the coast of Venezuela, with maximum depths of about 1400 m. It is connected to the open ocean by two shallow passages of less than 150 m depth. Limited basin ventilation, coupled with a small vertical mixing results in anoxic conditions from about 250 m to the bottom. The dynamics of the Cariaco Basin are studied by means of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/60 degree and is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) nested in the global HYCOM solution from the Naval Research Laboratory. Of particular interest are the mechanisms that link the basin's interior to the Caribbean Sea, which can lead to the ventilation of the basin's anoxic sub-surface waters. To assess the influence of the open ocean on the basin, the spatial and temporal evolution of the thermocline depth and width is studied, as well as its relationship with wind variability and chlorophyll-a concentration: at seasonal scales, the interior of the basin reacts to easterly winds intensification with a rising of the thermocline, resulting in a coastal upwelling response, with the consequent increase in chlorophyll-a concentration. Outside the Cariaco basin, where an open-ocean, oligotrophic regime predominates, wind intensification increases mixing of the surface layers and induces therefore a deepening of the thermocline. At shorter time scales (i.e. days), it is shown that other processes, such as the influence of the meandering Caribbean Current, can also influence the thermocline variability within the Cariaco basin. [less ▲]

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See detailOnboard implementation of the GHER model for the Black Sea, with SST and CTD data assimilation
Vandenbulcke, Luc ULiege; Capet, Arthur ULiege; Beckers, Jean-Marie ULiege et al

in Journal of Operational Oceanography (2010), 3(2), 47-54

The first operational implementation of the GHER hydrodynamic model is described. It took place onboard the research vessel Alliance with all computation and sharing of forecasts being realised from the ... [more ▼]

The first operational implementation of the GHER hydrodynamic model is described. It took place onboard the research vessel Alliance with all computation and sharing of forecasts being realised from the vessel in near-real time. The forecasts were realised in the context of the Turkish Straits System 2008 campaign, which aimed at the real-time characterisation of the Marmara Sea and (south-western) Black Sea. The model performed badly at first, mainly because of poor initial conditions. Hence, as the model includes a reduced-rank extended Kalman filter assimilation scheme, after a hindcast where sea surface temperature and temperature and salinity profiles were assimilated, the model yielded realistic forecasts. Furthermore, the time required to run a one-day simulation (about 300 seconds of simulation, or 500 with pre-processing and data transfers included) was very limited and thus operational use of the model is possible. [less ▲]

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See detailSuper-ensemble techniques applied to wave forecast: performance and limitations
Lenartz, Fabian ULiege; Beckers, Jean-Marie ULiege; Chiggiato, Jacopo et al

in Ocean Science (2010), 6(2), 595-604

Nowadays, several operational ocean wave forecasts are available for a same region. These predictions may considerably differ, and to choose the best one is generally a difficult task. The super-ensemble ... [more ▼]

Nowadays, several operational ocean wave forecasts are available for a same region. These predictions may considerably differ, and to choose the best one is generally a difficult task. The super-ensemble approach, which consists in merging different forecasts and past observations into a single multi-model prediction system, is evaluated in this study. During the DART06 campaigns organized by the NATO Undersea Research Centre, four wave forecasting systems were simultaneously run in the Adriatic Sea, and significant wave height was measured at six stations as well as along the tracks of two remote sensors. This effort provided the necessary data set to compare the skills of various multi-model combination techniques. Our results indicate that a super-ensemble based on the Kalman Filter improves the forecast skills: The bias during both the hindcast and forecast periods is reduced, and the correlation coefficient is similar to that of the best individual model. The spatial extrapolation of local results is not straightforward and requires further investigation to be properly implemented. [less ▲]

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